Greenlight Capital Re (Greenlight Capital Re) Predictability Rank

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What is Greenlight Capital Re Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Greenlight Capital Re Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Greenlight Capital Re (Greenlight Capital Re) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Greenlight Capital Re Ltd (NAS:GLRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

G8L:Germany

Address

65 Market Street, Suite 1207, P.O. Box 31110, Camana Bay, Grand Cayman, CYM, KY1-1205

Website

https://www.greenlightre.com

Greenlight Capital Re Ltd offers property and casualty reinsurance. Its customers are property and casualty insurers, and Greenlight takes on some of their risk in exchange for insurance premiums. It operates through one operating segment: property and casualty reinsurance. It generates revenue through premiums from reinsurance on property and casualty business assumed, and income from investments. Most of the revenue is generated from policies written in the United States and the Caribbean.

Executives

David Einhorn	director, 10 percent owner	140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Ian Isaacs	director	65 MARKET STREET, SUITE 1207,, CAMANA BAY, P.O. BOX 31110,, GRAND CAYMAN, E9 E9 KY1-1205
David Sigmon	officer: General Counsel	65 MARKET ST., SUITE 1207, JASMINE CT, CAMANA BAY, P.O. BOX 31110, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1205
Brian Joseph Oreilly	officer: Head of Innovations	65 MARKET ST., SUITE 1207, JASMINE COURT, CAMANA BAY, P.O. BOX 3111, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1205
Richard Paul Strommer	officer: Chief Actuary	GREENLIGHT REINSURANCE, LTD., 65 MARKET ST., SUITE 1207, JASMINE COURT, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1205
Johnny Ferrari	director	PO BOX 493, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1 1106
Victoria W Guest	director	RAM RE HOUSE, 46 REID STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 12
Ursuline F Foley	director	239 WASHINGTON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Daniel Roitman	other: Alternate Director	140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Faramarz Romer	officer: Reporting & Compliance Officer	65 MARKET STREET, SUITE 1207,, CAMANA BAY, P.O. BOX 31110, GRAND CAYMAN, E9 E9 KY1-1205
Neil W Greenspan	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O MONTPELIER RE HOLDINGS LTD., MINTFLOWER PLACE 8 PAR-LA-VILLE ROAD, HAMILTON D0 HM 08
Thomas James Curnock	officer: Chief Risk Officer	65 MARKET STREET, SUITE 1207, CAMANA BAY, P.O. BOX 31110, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY11205
Leonard R Goldberg	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	802 WEST BAY ROAD, THE GRAND PAVILION, P.O. BOX 31110, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1205
Barry Brendan	officer: Chief Underwriting Officer	65 MARKET STREET, SUITE 1207,, CAMANA BAY, P.O. BOX 31110, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY11205
Laura Accurso	officer: GENERAL COUNSEL	65 MARKET STREET, SUITE 1207, CAMANA BAY, P.O. BOX 31110, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY11205