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Genesis Energy LP (Genesis Energy LP) Predictability Rank


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What is Genesis Energy LP Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Genesis Energy LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Genesis Energy LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Genesis Energy LP (Genesis Energy LP) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Genesis Energy LP (NYSE:GEL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
GLP LPG NVGS DHT NGL TNP TNK TK PBT OSG TSX:ENB EPD ET WMB OKE MPLX TSX:TRP KMI LNG TRGP
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
811 Louisiana, Suite 1200, Houston, TX, USA, 77002
Website
https://www.genesisenergy.com
Genesis Energy LP is an us-based limited partnership that focuses on the midstream segment of the crude oil and natural gas industry. It engages in providing services to crude oil and natural gas producers, and industrial and commercial enterprises. The company's reportable segments are offshore pipeline transportation, sodium minerals and sulfur services, onshore facilities and transportation, and marine transportation. It generates maximum revenue from the offshore pipeline transportation segment. The Sodium minerals and sulfur services segment includes trona and trona-based exploring, mining, processing, producing, marketing, and selling activities, as well as processing high sulfur gas streams for refineries to remove the sulfur, and selling the related by-product.
Executives
Jeffrey J Rasmussen officer: VP & GM - Refinery Services 811 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77002
Edward T Flynn officer: President, Genesis Alkali, LLC 1735 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Ryan S Sims officer: Vice President 919 MILAM SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77002
William W Rainsberger officer: SVP - Offshore 919 MILAM SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77002
Scott A Sims officer: VP - Offshore 811 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77002
Louis V Nicol officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer 811 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77002
James E Davison director 2000 FARMERVILLE HIGHWAY, RUSTON LA 71270
Grant E Sims director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 919 MILAM SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77002
Garland G Gaspard officer: Vice President 919 MILAM SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77002
William Stanton Goloway officer: Vice President 919 MILAM SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77002
Albert Conrad P director 919 MILAM SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77002
Kristen O Jesulaitis officer: General Counsel & Secretary 919 MILAM SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77002
Davison James E. Jr. director 500 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD EAST, RUSTON LA 71270
Richard R Alexander officer: Vice President 919 MILAM SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77002
Sharilyn S Gasaway director ONE ALLIED DRIVE, LITTLE ROCK AR 72202