Genesco (Genesco) Predictability Rank

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What is Genesco Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Genesco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Genesco Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Genesco (Genesco) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Genesco Inc (NYSE:GCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GN8:Germany

Address

535 Marriott Drive, Nashville, TN, USA, 37214

Website

https://www.genesco.com

Genesco Inc sells footwear, headwear, sports apparel, and accessories. The company has four reportable segments namely Journeys Group, derives maximum revenue which comprised of Journeys, Journeys Kidz and Little Burgundy retail footwear chains, e-commerce operations, and catalog. Its Schuh Group comprised of the Schuh retail footwear chain and e-commerce operations. The Johnston & Murphy Group, comprised of Johnston & Murphy retail operations, e-commerce operations and catalog and wholesale distribution of products under the Johnston & Murphy and H.S. Trask brands. Licensed Brands, comprised of Dockers Footwear, under a license from Levi Strauss & Company.

Executives

Gregory A Sandfort	director	GENESCO INC., 535 MARRIOTT DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Matthew C Diamond	director
Daniel E Ewoldsen	officer: Senior VP	535 MARRIOTT DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Mimi Eckel Vaughn	officer: Vice President	C/O GENESCO INC, 535 MARRIOTT DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Thomas George	officer: Sr VP-Finance and Interim CFO	535 MARRIOTT DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Matthew M Bilunas	director	C/O BEST BUY CO., INC., 7601 PENN AVENUE SOUTH, RICHFIELD MN 55423
Carolyn Bojanowski	director	79 CLYDE, SAN RAFAEL CA 94901
Kathleen Mason	director	GENESCO INC., 1415 MURFREESBORO ROAD, NASHVILLE TN 37217
Mary E Meixelsperger	director	810 DSW DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43219
Angel R Martinez	director	C/O TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORP, PO BOX 2353, ORLANDO FL 32802-2353
Marty G Dickens	director
Thurgood Jr Marshall	director	3000 K STREET N W, SUITE 300, WASHINGTON DC 20007-5116
John F Lambros	director	535 MARRIOTT DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Robert J Dennis	officer: Senior Vice President	GENESCO INC., 1415 MURFREESBORO ROAD, NASHVILLE TN 37217
Brently G. Baxter	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O GENESCO INC., 535 MARRIOTT DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214