Fulton Financial (Fulton Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Fulton Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fulton Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Fulton Financial (Fulton Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Fulton Financial Corp (NAS:FULT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FULTP.PFD:USA FU5:Germany

Address

One Penn Square, P.O Box 4887, Lancaster, PA, USA, 17602

Website

https://www.fultonbank.com

Fulton Financial is a U.S.-based financial services holding company that operates in five states: Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and Virginia. It offers a range of consumer and commercial banking products and services, such as checking and savings deposit products and loan products. Its services cover five distinct divisions: consumer banking, commercial banking, mortgage banking, wealth management, and other. The bank derives its revenue from non-interest income, led by its Wealth Management division.

Executives

E Philip Wenger	officer: Sr. Executive Vice President	C/O FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, ONE PENN SQUARE, LANCASTER PA 17602
Karthik Sridharan	officer: Sr Executive Vice President	110 WEST FRONT STREET, RED BANK NJ 07701
Curtis J Myers	officer: Sr. Executive Vice President	C/O FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, ONE PENN SQUARE, LANCASTER PA 17602
Mark R Mccollom	officer: Sr. Executive Vice President	1130 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD, WYOMISSING PA 19610
David M Campbell	officer: Sr Executive Vice President	C/O FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, ONE PENN SQUARE, LANCASTER PA 17602
Meg R Mueller	officer: SEVP & Chief Credit Officer	C/O FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, ONE PENN SQUARE, LANCASTER PA 17602
Andrew B Fiol	officer: Sr Executive Vice President	C/O FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, ONE PENN SQUARE, LANCASTER PA 17602
George K Martin	director	C/O FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, ONE PENN SQUARE, LANCASTER PA 17602
Moxley James R Iii	director	10480 LITTLE PATUXENT PARKWAY, COLUMBIA MD 21044
Angela M Sargent	officer: SEVP & Chief Info Office	C/O FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, ONE PENN SQUARE, LANCASTER PA 17602
Steven S Etter	director	C/O FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, ONE PENN SQUARE, LANCASTER PA 17602
Angela M Snyder	officer: Sr Executive Vice President	C/O FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, ONE PENN SQUARE, LANCASTER PA 17602
Antoinette M Pergolin	director	C/O FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, ONE PENN SQUARE, LANCASTER PA 17602
Natasha R. Luddington	officer: Sr. Executive Vice President	C/O FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, ONE PENN SQUARE, LANCASTER PA 17602
Daniel R Stolzer	officer: Sr Executive Vice President	C/O CODORUS VALLEY BANCORP INC, 105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403