Fossil Group (Fossil Group) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fossil Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Fossil Group (Fossil Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Fossil Group Inc (NAS:FOSL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FSL:Germany FSL:Germany

Address

901 S. Central Expressway, Richardson, TX, USA, 75080

Website

https://www.fossilgroup.com

Fossil Group Inc is a design, innovation and distribution company in consumer fashion accessories. The products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts and sunglasses. The reportable segments are comprised of 1) Americas segment includes sales in Canada, Latin America and the United States. 2) Europe segment includes sales in European countries, the Middle East and Africa. 3) Asia segment includes sales in Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. Each reportable operating segment includes sales to wholesale and distributor customers, and sales through Company-owned retail stores and e-commerce activities based on the location of the selling entity.

Executives

Suzanne M Coulter	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Kosta N Kartsotis	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Pres. & CEO	901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Diane L Neal	director
Melissa B Lowenkron	officer: SVP, General Manager, Fossil	901 S CENTRAL EXPY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Holly Briedis	officer: EVP, Chief Digital Officer	901 S CENTRAL EXPY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Gregory A Mckelvey	officer: Executive Vice President	2515 MCKINNEY AVE., SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
Darren E. Hart	officer: Executive Vice President	2280 N. GREENVILLE AVENUE, RICHARDSON TX 75082
Steve Andrew Evans	officer: Executive Vice President	901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Gail B Tifford	director	901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, RICHARDSON TX 75134
Marc Rey	director	901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Sunil M Doshi	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	5760 STATE HIGHWAY 121, SUITE 250, PLANO TX 75024
Martin Frey	officer: EVP	901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
William B Chiasson	director	C/O LEAPFROG ENTERPRISES, INC., 6401 HOLLIS STREET, SUITE 150, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Kim Harris Jones	director	THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093
Kevin Mansell	director	C/O KOHLS LEGAL, N56 W170000 RIDGEWOOD DR, MENOMONEE FALLS WI 53051