Amicus Therapeutics (Amicus Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Amicus Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Amicus Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Amicus Therapeutics (Amicus Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Amicus Therapeutics Inc (NAS:FOLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AM6:Germany

Address

3675 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19104

Website

https://www.amicusrx.com

Amicus Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing and delivering medicines for people living with rare metabolic diseases. The company is engaged in developing a pipeline of medicines for rare metabolic diseases, including a rare disease gene therapy portfolio. It has a portfolio of product opportunities, including oral precision medicine for people living with Fabry disease who have amenable genetic variants; a clinical-stage, treatment paradigm for Pompe disease, and a rare disease gene therapy portfolio. The company has one segment focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of advanced therapies to treat a range of devastating rare and orphan diseases.

Executives

John F Crowley	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
David Michael Clark	officer: Chief People Officer	1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Samantha Prout	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Bradley L Campbell	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Ellen Rosenberg	officer: General Counsel & Corp. Secy	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, 1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08560
Jeff Castelli	officer: VP, Program Management	1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Harford Simon N.r.	officer: Chief Financial Officer	AVON PRODUCTS, INC., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Michael Raab	director	1119 ST PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Daphne Quimi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Margaret G Mcglynn	director	C/O MERCK & CO INC, ONE MERCK DRIVE PO BOX 100, WHITEHOUSE STATION NJ 08889-0100
Burke W Whitman	director	13455 NOEL ROAD # 2000, DALLAS TX 75240
Eiry Roberts	director	C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 12780 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEO CA 92130
Hung Do	officer: Sr Vice President Discovery	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Michael Aaron Kelly	director	C/O HOOKIPA PHARMA INC., 430 EAST 29TH ST., NEW YORK NY 10016
Jay Barth	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512