What is First Financial Bankshares Predictability Rank?
3.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
First Financial Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
First Financial Bankshares (First Financial Bankshares) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
400 Pine Street, Abilene, TX, USA, 79601
First Financial Bankshares Inc is a financial and bank holding company. The company operates one line of business (community banking) located in a single geographic area (Texas). The company conducts a full-service commercial banking business through its subsidiaries. The loan portfolio segments of the company include Commercial and Industrial, Municipal, Agricultural, Construction and Development, Farm, Non-Owner Occupied and Owner Occupied Commercial Real Estate, Residential, Consumer Auto and Consumer Non-Auto.
Executives
| Michelle S Hickox |
officer: EVP/CFO |
1600 REDBUD BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, MCKINNEY TX 75069 |
| Nickles Robert Clark Jr |
director |
24503 OLD WINDMILL TRAIL, HOCKLEY TX 77447 |
| Johnny Trotter |
director |
400 PINE STREET, C/O FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES, ABILENE TX 79601 |
| Murray Hamilton Edwards |
director |
5423 FM 3217, CLYDE TX 79510 |
| Michael B. Denny |
director |
1202 ELMWOOD DRIVE, ABILENE TX 79605 |
| Anthony April Kaye Bullock |
director |
3606 PRINCETON AVENUE, DALLAS TX 75205 |
| F Scott Dueser |
director |
400 PINE ST, ABILENE TX 79601 |
| Kade Matthews |
director |
400 PINE STREET, C/O FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES, ABILENE TX 79601 |
| Eli Jones |
director |
200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501 |
| David William Bailey |
officer: EVP, Commercial Banking |
P.O. BOX 1581, EASTLAND TX 76448 |
| David L Copeland |
director |
PO BOX 2791, ABILENE TX 79604 |
| Tucker S Bridwell |
director |
400 PINE STE 1000, ABILENE TX 79601 |
| James R Gordon |
officer: EVP-CFO |
104 SOUTH MAIN STREET, GREENVILLE SC 29601 |
| Vianei Lopez Braun |
director |
801 CHERRY STREET, SUITE 2000, FT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Ronald N Giddiens |
director |
5808 PECAN VALLEY, SAN ANGELO TX 76904-9531 |
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