First Business Financial Services (First Business Financial Services) Predictability Rank

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What is First Business Financial Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Business Financial Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Business Financial Services (First Business Financial Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Business Financial Services Inc (NAS:FBIZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

401 Charmany Drive, Madison, WI, USA, 53719

Website

http://www.firstbusiness.bank

First Business Financial Services Inc operates as a bank holding company. The Bank operates as a business bank, focusing on delivering a full line of commercial banking products including commercial loans and commercial real estate loans, to meet the specific needs of small and medium-sized businesses, business owners, executives, professionals, and high-net-worth individuals. The company's products and services include commercial lending, SBA lending and servicing, asset-based lending, equipment financing, factoring, trust, and investment services, treasury management services, and a broad range of deposit products. Geographically all the business activity functioned through the region of the United States.

Executives

Carol P Sanders	director	PO BOX 2568, MADISON WI 53701-2568
Jodi A Chandler	officer: SVP Hum. Res. & Administration	401 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
Gerald L Kilcoyne	director	5736 TUSCANY LANE, WAUNAKEE WI 53597
Carla C Sanders	director	ONE AMC WAY, 11500 ASH STREET, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Kevin D Crampton	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	401 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
John J Harris	director	4248 FRANKLIN AVE., WESTERN SPRINGS IL 60558
Laura M. Garcia	officer: Chief Risk Officer	401 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
Barbara Mccarty Conley	officer: SVP Corp. Sec. & Gen.Couns.	401 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
Daniel P. Olszewski	director	401 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
James Edward Hartlieb	officer: President-First Business Bank	401 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
Brian D. Spielmann	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	401 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
Sloane Edward G Jr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	401 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
Ralph R. Kauten	director	401 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
David R. Seiler	officer: Chief Operating Officer	401 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
Bradley A Quade	officer: Chief Credit Officer	401 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719