Expedia Group (Expedia Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Expedia Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Expedia Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Expedia Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Expedia Group (Expedia Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Expedia Group Inc (NAS:EXPE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EXPE:Mexico 1EXPE:Italy E3X1:Germany E3X1:Germany E3X1:Germany E3X1:Germany EXGR34:Brazil EXPE:Austria

Address

1111 Expedia Group Way W, Seattle, WA, USA, 98119

Website

https://www.expediagroup.com

Expedia is the world's second largest online travel agency by bookings, offering services for lodging (76% of total 2022 sales), air tickets (3%), rental cars, cruises, in-destination, and other (14%), and advertising revenue (7%). Expedia operates a number of branded travel booking sites, including Expedia.com, Hotels.com, Travelocity, Orbitz, Wotif, AirAsia, and Vrbo. It also has a metasearch brand, Trivago. Transaction fees for online bookings account for the bulk of sales and profits.

Executives

Dara Khosrowshahi	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O INTERACTIVE CORP, 152 WEST 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10019
Lance A Soliday	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O EXPEDIA, INC., 333 108TH AVENUE NE, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Robert J Dzielak	officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Sec.	C/O EXPEDIA, INC., 333 108TH AVE NE, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Alexandr Wang	director	C/O EXPEDIA GROUP, INC., 1111 EXPEDIA GROUP WAY W., SEATTLE WA 98119
Madhumita Moina Banerjee	director	C/O JBG SMITH PROPERTIES, 4445 WILLARD AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Henrique Vasoncelos Dubugras	director	1000 LAUREL WAY, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Jonathan L Dolgen	director	CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 12405 POWERSCOURT DRIVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63131
Patricia Menendez-cambo	director	C/O EXPEDIA GROUP, INC., 1111 EXPEDIA GROUP WAY W., SEATTLE WA 98119
Peter M Kern	director	C/O EXPEDIA, INC., 333 108TH AVENUE NE, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Susan C Athey	director	C/O EXPEDIA, INC., 333 108TH AVE NE, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Beverly J Anderson	director	1550 PEACHTREE STREET NW, ATLANTA GA 30309
A George Battle	director	600 TOWNSEND ST, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Slp V Fort Gp I, L.l.c.	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slp V Fort Holdings I, L.p.	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slp Fort Aggregator Ii, L.p	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025