Equity Lifestyle Properties (Equity Lifestyle Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is Equity Lifestyle Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Equity Lifestyle Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Equity Lifestyle Properties (Equity Lifestyle Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc (NYSE:ELS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Two North Riverside Plaza, Suite 800, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606

Website

https://www.equitylifestyleproperties.com

Equity Lifestyle Properties is a residential REIT that focuses on owning manufactured housing, residential vehicle communities, and marinas. The company currently has a portfolio of 450 properties across the U.S. with a higher concentration in the Sunbelt region with 34% of the company's properties located in Florida, 11% in California, and 10% in Arizona. Equity Lifestyle targets owning properties in attractive retirement destinations with over 70% of the company's properties either being age-restricted or having an average resident age over 55.

Executives

Derrick Burks	director	C/O EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES INC, TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Paul Seavey	officer: Sr Vice President & Treasurer	C/O EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC., TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Freedman Constance	director	C/O EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Andrew Berkenfield	director	C/O EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Patrick Waite	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	C/O EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC., TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Marguerite M Nader	officer: Vice President-Business Deve.	2S601 AVENUE LA TOURS, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Valerie Henry	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC., TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Roger Maynard	officer: Senior Vice President	MANUFACTURED HOME COMMUNITIES, INC., 2 N. RIVERSIDE PLAZA #8, CHICAGO IL 60606
Scott R Peppet	director	1820 DEER VALLEY ROAD, BOULDER CO 80305
David J Contis	director	2 NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 600, CHICAGO IL 60606
Samuel Zell	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board	TWO N RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 600, CHICAGO IL 60606
Howard Walker	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	MANUFACTURED HOME COMMUNITIES INC, 2 N RIVERSIDE PLAZA 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Sheli Z Rosenberg	director	C/O EQUITY GROUP INVESTMENTS, L.L.C., TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 600, CHICAGO IL 60606
Matthew Williams	director	C/O EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC., TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Tao Huang	director	C/O MORNINGSTAR, INC., 225 WEST WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606