Employers Holdings (Employers Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Employers Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Employers Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Employers Holdings (Employers Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Employers Holdings Inc (NYSE:EIG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

YGB:Germany

Address

10375 Professional Circle, Reno, NV, USA, 89521

Website

http://www.employers.com

Employers Holdings Inc provides workers' compensation insurance, primarily to small businesses in low- to medium hazard industries. Its customers are employers, and the insurance premiums that those employers pay account for more than 90% of total company revenue. Substantially all of the remaining revenue is generated through investments. The company operates exclusively in the United States, and it generates more than half of its business in California. By industry, the company has the most exposure to restaurants, which account for roughly a fourth of the total premiums the company earns.

Executives

Katherine H. Antonello	officer: EVP, Chief Actuary	10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89521
Alejandro Perez-tenessa	director	10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89521
Michael J Mcsally	director	10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89521
Christopher Laws	officer: EVP, Chief Actuary	10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89521
Tracey Lynn Berg	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89521
Stephen V Festa	officer: Sr VP & CCO, EICN and ECIC	9790 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89521
Douglas D Dirks	director, officer: President and CEO of EIG	10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89521
De Figueiredo Joao M	director	10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89521
James R Kroner	director	600 FOURTH STREET, P.O. BOX 6000, SIOUX CITY IA 51102-6000
Jeanne L Mockard	director	PUTNAM INVESTMENTS, ONE POST OFFICE SQUARE, BOSTON MA 02109
Lawrence S Rogers	officer: SVP, Chief Underwriting Office	10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89521
Richard W Blakey	director	10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89521
John M. Mutschink	officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer	10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89521
Michael Scott Paquette	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	EMPLOYERS HOLDINGS, INC., 10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89521
Barry J. Vogt	officer: SVP, Chief Claims Officer	10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89521