What is Electronics for Imaging Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Electronics for Imaging Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Electronics for Imaging (Electronics for Imaging) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6750 Dumbarton Circle, Fremont, CA, USA, 94555
Electronics for Imaging provides digital printing services to printer manufacturers, commercial photo labs, sign shops, and billboard graphics providers. The firm operates in three segments: industrial inkjet, which provides eponymous printers to markets undergoing conversion of production from analog to digital; productivity software, which provides products to manage and streamline printing operations; and Fiery, which provides digital front ends to transform printers into networked devices for commercial and industrial use. Roughly half of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States, with the rest coming from Europe, Middle East, and Africa, and Asia-Pacific.
Executives
| Dan Maydan |
director |
|
| Eric F Brown |
director |
C/O POLYCOM, INC., 4750 WILLOW ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
| Thomas Georgens |
director |
495 EAST JAVA DRIVE, SUNNYVALE X1 94089 |
| Janice Chaffin |
director |
SYMANTEC CORPORATION, 20330 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
| Muir William D Jr |
director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER |
10560 DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. ST. N., ST. PETERSBURG FL 33716 |
| Richard A Kashnow |
director |
313 CONSTITUTION DR, STE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Guy Gecht |
director |
|
| Vincent Pilette |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
303 VELOCITY WAY, FOSTER CITY CA 94404 |
| John Ritchie |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
303 VELOCITY WAY, FOSTER CITY X1 94404 |
| James S Greene |
director |
|
| Blum Strategic Gp Iv, L.l.c. |
10 percent owner |
909 MONTOGOMERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133 |
| Saddlepoint Partners Gp, L.l.c. |
10 percent owner |
909 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133 |
| Blum Strategic Gp Iii, L.l.c. |
10 percent owner |
909 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133 |
| Blum Capital Partners Lp |
10 percent owner |
909 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133 |
| Richard C Blum & Associates Inc |
10 percent owner |
909 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133 |
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