Destiny Media Technologies (Destiny Media Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Destiny Media Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Destiny Media Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Destiny Media Technologies (Destiny Media Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Destiny Media Technologies Inc (OTCPK:DSNY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DME1:Germany DSY:Canada

Address

428 - 1575 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6G 2V3

Website

https://www.dsny.com

Destiny Media Technologies Inc is a provider of secure digital content distribution and promotion solutions. The company operates solely in the digital media software segment. Its predominant services are Clipstream which enables any non-technical user to upload videos that will play on all modern web browsers and Play MPE, a digital distribution service that is used commercially by the recording industry. Destiny services are based on proprietary security, watermarking and instant play streaming media technologies. It also offers audio and video streaming solutions and secure file distribution to customers around the globe.

Executives

Mark A Graber	10 percent owner	2220 NORTHSTAR STREET, NUMBER 17, ANCHORAGE AK 99503
Olya Massalitina	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1911 - 271 FRANCIS WAY, NEW WESTMINSTER A1 V3L 0H2
David M. Mossberg	director	1905 HAY MEADOW COURT, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Hyonmyong Cho	director	961 PASEO DEL SUR, SANTA FE NM 87501
Fred Vandenberg	officer: Chief Financial Officer	800-570 GRANVILLE STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3P1
Samuel Ritchie	officer: CFO	24414 113 AVE, MAPLE RIDGE A1 V2W0H4
David Alexander Summers	director	C/O DESTINY MEDIA TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1110 - 885 W. GEORGIA STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3E8
Steve Vestergaard	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	650 350 CENTRE ROAD, LIONS BAY A1 V0N 2E0
Sandra Boenisch	officer: CFO	51 WEST 52ND STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Samuel Jay Graber	director	3139 CLEARFIELD DRIVE, SAN ANTONIO TX 78230
Haig S Bagerdjian	director	2777 NORTH ONTARIO ST, BURBANK CA 91504
Dale Borland	officer: VP and COO of Subsidiary	SUITE 750, 650 WEST GEORGIA STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6B 4N7
Edward Kolic	director
Yoshitaro Kumagai	director	5255 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., #284, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Lawrence Jeffrey Langs	director	134 LA ESPIRAL ROAD, ORINDA CA 94563