Desktop Metal (Desktop Metal) Predictability Rank

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What is Desktop Metal Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Desktop Metal Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Desktop Metal Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Desktop Metal (Desktop Metal) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Desktop Metal Inc (NYSE:DM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

844:Germany

Address

63 3rd Avenue, Burlington, MA, USA, 01803

Website

https://www.desktopmetal.com

Desktop Metal Inc manufactures 3D printing to make metal and carbon fiber 3D printing accessible to all engineers, designers, and manufacturers. 3D metal printing helps in the design and development of automotive parts, consumer goods, manufacture of industrial equipment, and design of mechanical systems. The company ships its product to markets in the Americas, Europe Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Asia Pacific (APAC).

Executives

Farhad Fred Ebrahimi	10 percent owner	191 UNIVERSITY BLVD., #246, DENVER CO 80206
Scott J Dussault	director	C/O DESKTOP METAL, INC., 63 THIRD AVE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Jason M Cole	officer: CFO & TREASURER	C/O DESKTOP METAL, INC., 63 3RD AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Ric Fulop	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O DESKTOP METAL, INC., 63 THIRD AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Thomas Nogueira	officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	C/O DESKTOP METAL, INC., 63 3RD AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Hindery Leo J. Jr.	director, other: See remarks.	C/O HMG, INC., C/O CINE LATINO, INC., 2000 PONCE DE LEON BLVD, SUITE 500, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Michael M. Jafar	officer: CEO, Desktop Health	17901 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 150, IRVINE CA 92614
James S Eisenstein	director	C/O AMERICAN TOWER CORP, 116 HUNTINGTON AVE, BOSTON MA 02116
Jeffrey R Immelt	director	GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY, 41 FARNSWORTH STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Siblani Ali El	director, officer: CEO of EnvisionTec US, LLC	63 THIRD AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
James Haley	officer: CFO & Treasurer	63 THIRD AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Arjun Aggarwal	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O DESKTOP METAL, INC., 63 THIRD AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Wen Hsuan Hsieh	director	C/O DESKTOP METAL, INC., 63 THIRD AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Forest Baskett	10 percent owner
Bilal Zuberi	director	C/O DESKTOP METAL, INC., 63 THIRD AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803