Delcath Systems (Delcath Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is Delcath Systems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Delcath Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Delcath Systems (Delcath Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Delcath Systems Inc (NAS:DCTH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DV3R:Germany

Address

1633 Broadway, Suite 22C, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.delcath.com

Delcath Systems Inc is an oncology company. It is focused on the treatment of primary and metastatic liver cancers. The firm's product candidate, Melphalan Hydrochloride for Injection for use with the Delcath Hepatic Delivery System, or Melphalan/HDS, is designed to administer high-dose chemotherapy to the liver while controlling systemic exposure and associated side effects.

Executives

Vojo Vukovic	officer: See Remarks	C/O SYNTA PHARMACEUTICALS CORP., 45 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Gerard J Michel	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	420 CHIPETA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Sandra Pennell	officer: See Remarks	C/O VERICEL CORPORATION, 64 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
David L. Hoffman	officer: See Remarks	C/O DELCATH SYSTEMS, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, SUITE 22C, NEW YORK NY 10019
John Purpura	officer: EVP, Regulatory Affairs	600 FIFTH AVENUE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020
John Richard Sylvester	director	C/O DELCATH SYSTEMS, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, SUITE 22C, NEW YORK NY 10019
Salamon Steven A J	director	25 ADMIRAL ROAD, TORONTO A6 M5R 2L4
Rosalind Advisors, Inc.	director, other: See Remarks	15 WELLESLEY STREET WEST, SUITE 326, TORONTO A6 M4Y 0G7
Kevin Muir	officer: See Remarks	C/O DELCATH SYSTEMS, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, SUITE 22C, NEW YORK NY 10019
Anthony Dias	officer: Vice President of Finance	C/O SEACHANGE INTERNATIONAL, 50 NAGOG PARK, ACTON MA 01720
Gil Aharon	director	15 WELLESLEY STREET WEST, SUITE 326, TORONTO A6 M4Y 0G7
Johnny John	officer: See Remarks	C/O DELCATH SYSTEMS, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, SUITE 22C, NEW YORK NY 10019
Elizabeth Czerepak	director	201 ROUTE 17 NORTH, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Christine Padula	officer: See Remarks	C/O DELCATH SYSTEMS, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, SUITE 22C, NEW YORK NY 10019
Simon Pedder	director	1001 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, BUFFALO NY 14203