Community Health Systems (Community Health Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is Community Health Systems Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Community Health Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Community Health Systems Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Community Health Systems (Community Health Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Community Health Systems Inc (NYSE:CYH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CG5:Germany

Address

4000 Meridian Boulevard, Franklin, TN, USA, 37067

Website

https://www.chs.net

Community Health Systems Inc is the largest publicly owned hospital operator in the United States. The company owns or leases over 83 hospitals located in nonurban and urban markets. The company also owns four home health agencies and provides management and consulting services to independent hospitals. The firm derives revenue through a broad range of general and specialized hospital healthcare services and outpatient services.

Executives

Wayne T Smith	director, officer: Executive Officer and Director	500 WEST MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Charles J Cova	officer: Regional President	4000 MERIDIAN BOULEVARD, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Burgess Ronald L Jr	director	4000 MERIDIAN BOULEVARD, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Ely James S. Iii	director	4000 MERIDIAN BLVD, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Susan W Brooks	director	200 EAST JACKSON ST, MUNCIE IN 47305
Justin D Pitt	officer: EVP and General Counsel	4000 MERIDIAN BOULEVARD, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Joseph Arthur Hastings	director	1573 MALLORY LANE, SUITE 100, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
John A Fry	director	C/O DELAWARE INVESTMENTS, 2005 MARKET ST. 34TH FL., PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
William Norris Jennings	director	509 ALTA GATE ROAD, LOUISVILLE KY 40206
Chad A Campbell	officer: Regional President	4000 MERIDIAN BLVD, FRANKLIN TN 37067
David E Nicely	officer: Regional President	4000 MERIDIAN BOULEVARD, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Kevin A Stockton	officer: Regional President	4000 MERIDIAN BOULEVARD, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Mark B Medley	officer: Regional President	4000 MERIDIAN BOULEVARD, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Austen D Mason	officer: Regional President	4000 MERIDIAN BOULEVARD, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Tian Qiao Chen	10 percent owner	2735 SAND HILL ROAD, #140, MENLO PARK CA 94025