Cablevision Systems (Cablevision Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is Cablevision Systems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cablevision Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cablevision Systems (Cablevision Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Cablevision Systems Corp (NYSE:CVC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.cablevision.com

Cablevision Systems Corp is a Delaware corporation which was organized in 1997. It operates through its subsidiary, CSC Holdings. CSC Holdings is a cable operator in the United States. It also provides high-speed data and Voice over Internet Protocol services using its television broadband network; and Ethernet-based data, Internet, voice and video transport and managed services, to the business market in the New York metropolitan area. One of its subsidiaries also operates a newspaper publishing business. It also owns a cable television advertising sales business and regional news and other local programming services businesses. The Company classifies its operations into three reportable segments: Cable, consisting principally of video, high-speed data, and VoIP services; Lightpath; and Other, consisting principally of Newsday, which includes the Newsday daily newspaper, amNew York, Star Community Publishing Group, and online websites including newsday.com and exploreLI.com, the News 12 Networks, which provides regional news programming services, Cablevision Media Sales Corporation, a cable television advertising company, and MSG Varsity, a program service dedicated to showcasing high school sports and activities and other local programming. The Company's cable television systems are operated in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut under non-exclusive franchise agreements, where required by the franchising authority, with state and/or municipal or county franchising authorities. The Company's competitors include Verizon Communications, Inc., AT&T Inc., RCN Corporation, among others. Its cable television systems are subject to federal, state and local regulations.

Executives

Matthew John Dolan	other: Member of 13D Group	BAKER BOTTS L.L.P., 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112
Charles F. Dolan 2009 Family Trust Fbo Kathleen M. Dolan	other: Member of 13D Group	BAKER BOTTS L.L.P., 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112
Cfd 2010 Grandchildren Trust Fbo Aidan Dolan	other: Member of 13D Group	KNICKERBOCKER GROUP LLC, PO BOX 420, OYSTER BAY NY 11771
Cfd 2010 Grandchildren Trust Fbo Quentin Dolan	other: Member of 13D Group	KNICKERBOCKER GROUP LLC, PO BOX 420, OYSTER BAY NY 11771
Kathleen Margaret Dolan	other: Member of 13D Group	BAKER BOTTS L.L.P., 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112
Charles F. Dolan Children Trust Fbo Patrick F. Dolan	other: Member of 13D Group	DOLAN FAMILY OFFICE, 340 CROSSWAYS PARK DRIVE, WOODBURY NY 11797
Cfd 2010 Grandchildren Trust Fbo Descendants Of Kathleen M. Dolan	other: Member of 13D Group	DOLAN FAMILY OFFICE, 340 CROSSWAYS PARK DRIVE, WOODBURY NY 11797
Cfd 2010 Grandchildren Trust Fbo Descendants Of Marianne E. Dolan Weber	other: Member of 13D Group	DOLAN FAMILY OFFICE, 340 CROSSWAYS PARK DRIVE, WOODBURY NY 11797
Cfd 2010 Grandchildren Trust Fbo Descendants Of Patrick F. Dolan	other: Member of 13D Group	BAKER BOTTS L.L.P., 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112
Cfd 2010 Grandchildren Trust Fbo Descendants Of Deborah A. Dolan-sweeney	other: Member of 13D Group	DOLAN FAMILY OFFICE, 340 CROSSWAYS PARK DRIVE, WOODBURY NY 11797
Mary S Dolan	other: Member of 13D Group	BAKER BOTTS L.L.P., 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112
David M Dolan	other: Member of 13D Group	340 CROSSWAYS PARK DRIVE, WOODBURY NY 11797
Paul Joseph Dolan	director, other: Member of 13D Group	TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Ryan Dolan 1989 Trust	other: Member of 13D Group	BAKER BOTTS L.L.P., 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112
Tara Dolan 1989 Trust	other: Member of 13D Group	BAKER BOTTS L.L.P., 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112