Carriage Services (Carriage Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Carriage Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Carriage Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Carriage Services Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Carriage Services (Carriage Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Personal Services » Carriage Services Inc (NYSE:CSV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

C57:Germany

Address

3040 Post Oak Boulevard, Suite 300, Houston, TX, USA, 77056

Website

https://www.carriageservices.com

Carriage Services Inc is a leading provider of funeral and cemetery services and merchandise in the United States. It operates in two business segments: The Funeral Home Operations segment offers burial, cremation, and consultation services; removes and prepares remains; sells caskets, urns, and related funeral merchandise; and enables the use of funeral home facilities for visitation, remembrance, and transportation services. The Cemetery Operations segment provides services, such as mausoleum crypts, private estates, lawn crypt gardens, traditional single burial gravesites, and burial vaults. The majority of revenue is derived from The Funeral Home Operations segment.

Executives

Julie Sanders	director	3040 POST OAK BLVD., CARRIAGE SERVICES, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056
Somer Webb	director	C/O SOLO BRANDS, INC., 1001 MUSTANG DRIVE, GRAPEVILLE TX 76051
Charles Fargason	director	11510 QUAIL HOLLOW LANE, HOUSTON TX 77024
Melvin C Payne	director, officer: CEO	3040 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056
Paul Donald Elliott	other: Regional Partner	5219 LAURELWOOD, KINGWOOD TX 77345
Shane Pudenz	officer: VP of Sales and Marketing	3040 POST OAK BLVD., CARRIAGE SERVICES, SUITE 200, HOUSTON TX 77056
Lance Kian Granmayeh	officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer	1201 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 3100, HOUSTON TX 77002
Patteson Donald Douglas Jr	director	1111 BAGBY, SUITE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Adeola Olaniyan	other: Principal Accounting Officer	3040 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056
Steven D Metzger	other: Senior VP and General Counsel	6332 SCHILLER STREET, HOUSTON TX 77055
Carlos R. Quezada	officer: VP of Cemetery Sales/Marketing	3040 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056
Carl Benjamin Brink	officer: Principal Financial Officer	28634 PLEASANT FOREST DRIVE, KATY TX 77056
Robbie Pape	other: Sr. VP & Regional Partner	3040 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056
Peggy Schappaugh	officer: VP of Operations & Acquistions	3040 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056
Shawn R Phillips	other: Regional Partner	3040 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056