CoStar Group (CoStar Group) Predictability Rank

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What is CoStar Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CoStar Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CoStar Group (CoStar Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » CoStar Group Inc (NAS:CSGP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RLG:Germany C1GP34:Brazil

Address

1331 L Street, Northwest, WA, USA, 20005

Website

https://www.costar.com

CoStar Group is a leading provider of commercial real estate data and marketplace listing platforms. Its data offering contains in-depth analytical information on over 5 million commercial real estate properties related to various subsectors including office, retail, multifamily, healthcare, industrial, self-storage, and data centers. It operates many flagship brands such as CoStar Suite, LoopNet, Apartments.com, BizBuySell, and LandsofAmerica, with more than 80% of its revenue classified as subscription-based. The company also recently expanded its presence in Canada, the United Kingdom, Spain, and France.

Executives

John W Hill	director	1997 ANNAPOLIS EXCHANGE PARKWAY, SUITE 410, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Christopher J Nassetta	director	77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 3900, CHICAGO IL 60601
Angelique G. Brunner	director	C/O CHESAPEAKE LODGING TRUST, 4300 WILSON BOULEVARD, SUITE 625, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Lisa Ruggles	officer: Senior VP, Global Research	C/O COSTAR GROUP, INC., 1331 L STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Scott T Wheeler	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O COSTAR GROUP, INC., 1331 L STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Frank Simuro	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O COSTAR GROUP, INC., 1331 L STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Frederick G. Saint	officer: President, Marketplaces	LOOPNET, INC., 181 W. HUNTINGTON DRIVE, SUITE 208, MONROVIA CA 91016
Andrew C Florance	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O COSTAR GROUP INC, 1331 L STREET, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Michael J Desmarais	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O COSTAR GROUP, INC., 1331 L STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Michael R Klein	director	2001 K STREET, N.W., SUITE 206, WASHINGTON DC 20006
Gene Boxer	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	14 WESLEY STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Kaplan Laura Cox	director	C/O COSTAR GROUP, INC., 1331 L STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Matthew Linnington	officer: Executive Vice President Sales	C/O COSTAR GROUP, INC., 1331 L STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
David Jay Steinberg	director	C/O COSTAR GROUP, INC., 1331 L STREET, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Robert W Musslewhite	director	2445 M STREET, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20037