Chesapeake Utilities (Chesapeake Utilities) Predictability Rank

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What is Chesapeake Utilities Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chesapeake Utilities Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Chesapeake Utilities (Chesapeake Utilities) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Chesapeake Utilities Corp (NYSE:CPK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CH5:Germany

Address

500 Energy Lane, Dover, DE, USA, 19901

Website

https://www.chpk.com

Chesapeake Utilities Corp is a diversified energy delivery company that is engaged in natural gas transmission and distribution, electricity generation and distribution, propane gas distribution, mobile compressed natural gas utility services and solutions and other businesses. The company operates in two reportable segments, Regulated Energy and Unregulated Energy. The company's natural gas and electric distribution operations in Delaware, Maryland and Florida are subject to regulation by their respective PSC. Eastern Shore, its natural gas transmission subsidiary, is subject to regulation by the FERC and Peninsula Pipeline and Aspire Energy Express, its intrastate pipeline subsidiaries, are subject to regulation by the Florida PSC and Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, respectively.

Executives

Jeffery S Sylvester	officer: Senior VP & COO	500 ENERGY LANE, DOVER DE 19901
Thomas J Bresnan	director	1350 S. MILWAUKEE STREET, DENVER CO 80210
Maddock Paul L Jr	director	909 SILVER LAKE BLVD, DOVER DE 19904
Hill Thomas P Jr	director	909 SILVER LAKE BOULEVARD, DOVER DE 19904
Lila A Jaber	director	909 SILVER LAKE BLVD, DOVER DE 19904
John R Schimkaitis	director, other: Chair of the Board	909 SILVER LAKE BLVD., DOVER DE 19904
Kevin J Webber	officer: Senior VP & Chief Dev. Officer	909 SILVER LAKE BLVD, DOVER DE 19904
Stephanie N Gary	director	500 ENERGY LANE, DOVER DE 19901
Lisa Bisaccia	director	ONE CVS DRIVE, WOONSOCKET RI 02895
Michael D Galtman	officer: Senior VP & CAO	500 ENERGY LANE, DOVER DE 19901
Sheree M. Petrone	director	601 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 1400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Jeffry M Householder	director, other: President & CEO	909 SILVER LAKE BLVD, DOVER DE 19904
Forsythe Ronald G Jr	director	909 SILVER LAKE BOULEVARD, DOVER DE 19904
Dianna Morgan	director	909 SILVER LAKE BLVD, DOVER DE 19904
Beth W Cooper	officer: Executive VP & CFO	CHESAPEAKE UTILITIES CORPORATION, 909 SILVER LAKE BOULEVARD, DOVER DE 19904