Creative Mediammunity Trust (Creative Mediammunity Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Creative Mediammunity Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Creative Mediammunity Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Creative Mediammunity Trust (Creative Mediammunity Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Creative Media & Community Trust (NAS:CMCT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CMCT:Israel WY52:Germany

Address

17950 Preston Road, Suite 600, Dallas, TX, USA, 75252

Website

https://www.creativemediacommunity.com

Creative Media & Community Trust is a United states based company that formed to invest in, own, and operate Class A and creative office investments in improving urban communities throughout the United States. It operates through two segments: Office and Hotel, and Lending. The Office segment includes rental of office space and other tenant services, including tenant reimbursements, parking, and storage space rental. The Hotel segment relates to operations of hotel properties whereas, the lending segment refers to income from the yield and other related fee income earned on its loans receivable. The lending segment includes income recognized from the sale of government guaranteed portion of loans receivable, income from the yield on its loans receivable and other related fee income earned.

Executives

Richard S Ressler	director, 10 percent owner	C/O J2 GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD, 5TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Avraham Shemesh	director, 10 percent owner	C/O CIM GROUP, LLC, 6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD. 9TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Shaul Kuba	director, 10 percent owner	C/O CIM GROUP, LLC, 6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD. 9TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Cim Cmct Mlp, Llc	other: Member of 10% owner group	4700 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Marcie L Edwards	director	27975 LANGLEY PL, CASTAIC CA 91384
John Hope Bryant	director	C/O BRYANT GROUP VENTURES, 3473 S. SYCAMORE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90016
Cim Capital Real Property Management, Llc	10 percent owner	4700 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Elaine Y Wong	director	4700 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
David Andrew Thompson	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CIM GROUP, LLC, 6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD. 9TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Cim Capital, Llc	other: Member of 10% owner group	4700 WILSHIRE BLVD, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Nathan David Debacker	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2325 E. CAMELBACK ROAD, SUITE 1100, PHOENIX AZ 85016
Jan F Salit	officer: President and Secretary	18111 PRESTON ROAD SUITE 600, DALLAS TX 75252
Urban Partners Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O CIM GROUP, LLC, 6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD. 9TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Cim Service Provider, Llc	other: Member of 10% Owner Group	C/O CIM GROUP, LLC, 6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD. 9TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Cim Urban Sponsor, Llc	other: Member of 10% owner group	4700 WILSHIRE BLVD, LOS ANGELES CA 90010