Churchill Downs (Churchill Downs) Predictability Rank

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What is Churchill Downs Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Churchill Downs Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Churchill Downs (Churchill Downs) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Churchill Downs Inc (NAS:CHDN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CHR:Germany C2HD34:Brazil

Address

600 North Hurstbourne Parkway, Suite 400, Louisville, KY, USA, 40222

Website

https://www.churchilldownsincorporated.com

Churchill Downs Inc is a gaming entertainment, online wagering, and racing company. It operates through three business segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment includes live and historical pari-mutuel racing. The TwinSpires segment includes the revenue and expenses for online horse racing and the online and retail sports betting and iGaming wagering business. The company generates more than half of its revenue from the Gaming segment includes revenue from casino properties and associated racetrack or jai alai facilities which support the casino license as applicable.

Executives

Maureen Adams	officer: SVP, Gaming Operations	600 N. HURSTBOURNE PARKWAY, SUITE 400, LOUISVLLE KY 40222
Bradley K. Blackwell	officer: SVP, General Counsel	600 N. HURSTBOURNE PARKWAY, SUITE 400, LOUISVILLE KY 40222
Andrea M Carter	director	600 N. HURSTBOURNE PARKWAY, SUITE 400, LOUISVILLE KY 40222
Karole Lloyd	director	1932 WYNNTON ROAD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Paul C Varga	director	850 DIXIE HIGHWAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40210
R Alex Rankin	director	700 CENTRAL AVENUE, LOUISVILLE KY 40208
Robert L Fealy	director	700 CENTRAL AVE, LOUISVILLE KY 40208
Bridgeman Ulysses L Jr	director	7 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Marcia A Dall	officer: EVP, and Chief Financial Offic	600 N. HURSTBOURNE PARKWAY, SUITE 400, LOUISVILLE KY 40222
Austin W. Miller	officer: SVP, Gaming Operations	600 N. HURSTBOURNE PARKWAY, SUITE 400, LOUISVILLE KY 40222
Douglas C Grissom	director	THREE FIRST NATIONAL PLAZA STE 3800, CHICAGO IL 60602
William E Mudd	officer: President and COO	700 CENTRAL AVENUE, LOUISVILLE KY 40208
Daniel P Harrington	director	700 CENTRAL AVE, LOUISVILLE KY 40208
Richard L Duchossois	director, 10 percent owner
Robert L Evans	director, officer: President and CEO	TENLANE FARM, 825 STEELE ROAD, VESAILLES KY 40383