Church & Dwight Co (Church & Dwight Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Church & Dwight Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Church & Dwight Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Church & Dwight Co (Church & Dwight Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Church & Dwight Co Inc (NYSE:CHD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CHD:Mexico CXU:Germany

Address

500 Charles Ewing Boulevard, Ewing, NJ, USA, 08628

Website

https://www.churchdwight.com

Church & Dwight is the leading global producer of baking soda. Beyond baking soda, the products in its portfolio have vast category reach, including laundry products, cat litter, oral care, deodorant, and nasal care, all sold under the Arm & Hammer brand. Its mix also includes Xtra, Trojan, OxiClean, First Response, Nair, L'il Critters/Vitafusion, Orajel, and WaterPik, which together with Arm & Hammer constitute more than 80% of its annual sales and profits. In early 2019, the firm announced the addition of Flawless, which manufactures electric shaving products for women. At the end of 2020, the firm acquired Zicam, a leading brand in the cough/cold-shortening category. Church & Dwight derives more than 80% of its sales from its home market in the U.S.

Executives

Michael Read	officer: EVP, International	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Matthew Farrell	officer: Vice President Finance and CFO
Richard A Dierker	officer: E.V.P. Finance & C.F.O.	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Rene Hemsey	officer: E.V.P. HR	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Bradley C Irwin	director	469 NORTH HARRISON STREET, PRINCETON NJ 08543
De Maynadier Patrick D	officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary
Carlen Hooker	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Ravichandra Krishnamurty Saligram	director	C/O NEWELL BRANDS INC., 6655 PEACHTREE DUNWOODY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30328
Paul Richard Wood	officer: EVP, Sales	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Brian D Buchert	officer: EVP of Strategy, M&A, and BP	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Barry A. Bruno	officer: EVP, International	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
James Craigie	director, officer: President, Chief Executive Off	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Arthur B Winkleblack	director
Brad Cashaw	director	2711 NORTH HASKELL AVENUE, SUITE 3400, DALLAS TX 75204
Robert K Shearer	director	400 NORTH ELM STREET, GREENSBORO NC 27403