Cullen/Frost Bankers (Cullen/Frost Bankers) Predictability Rank

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What is Cullen/Frost Bankers Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cullen/Frost Bankers Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cullen/Frost Bankers (Cullen/Frost Bankers) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc (NYSE:CFR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CFRpB.PFD:USA CFZ:Germany CFZ:Germany

Address

111 W. Houston Street, San Antonio, TX, USA, 78205

Website

https://www.frostbank.com

Cullen/Frost Bankers is a financial holding company, headquartered in San Antonio. One of the 50 largest U.S. banks, Frost provides a wide range of banking, investments, and insurance services to businesses and individuals across Texas in the Austin, Corpus Christi, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, Permian Basin, Rio Grande Valley, and San Antonio regions.

Executives

Patrick B Frost	director, other: Member Executive Committee	100 WEST HOUSTON ST, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205
Howard Willome John	director	111 WEST HOUSTON STREET, SUITE 100, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205
Chris Avery	director	510 POST OAK ROAD, FREDERICKSBURG TX 78624
Howard L. Kasanoff	officer: GEVP Chief Credit Officer	111 WEST HOUSTON STREET, SUITE 100, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205
Bobby Berman	officer: Group Executive Vice President	100 WEST HOUSTON STREET, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205
Candace K Wolfshohl	officer: Group Executive Vice President	100 WEST HOUSTON STREET, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205
Phillip D Green	officer: Group EVP / CFO	100 WEST HOUSTON ST, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205
Carol Jean Severyn	officer: GEVP and Chief Risk Officer	100 WEST HOUSTON STREET, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205
Paul Bracher	officer: President	100 WEST HOUSTON STREET, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205
Joseph A. Pierce	director	111 WEST HOUSTON STREET, SUITE 100, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205
William L Perotti	officer: Group Executive Vice President	100 WEST HOUSTON STREET, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205
Jerry Salinas	officer: Chief Financial Officer	100 WEST HOUSTON STREET, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205
Anthony R Chase	director	10307 PACIFIC CENTER COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Linda B. Rutherford	director	2702 LOVE FIELD DRIVE, HDQ 4GC, DALLAS TX 75235
Annette M Alonzo	officer: Group Executive Vice President	100 WEST HOUSTON STREET, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205