Central European Media Enterprises (Central European Media Enterprises) Predictability Rank

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What is Central European Media Enterprises Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Central European Media Enterprises Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Central European Media Enterprises (Central European Media Enterprises) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Central European Media Enterprises Ltd (NAS:CETV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3 Bermudiana Road, O'Hara House, Hamilton, BMU, HM 08

Website

http://www.cetv-net.com

Central European Media Enterprises Ltd is a media and entertainment company. The company manages its business based on geographical segments in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Romania, and the Slovak Republic. Geographically, it generates maximum revenue from the Czech Republic. The company generates advertising revenues from placing ads on the television channels.

Executives

Christoph Mainusch	officer: co-Chief Executive Officer	KRIZENECKEHO NAM. 1078/5A PRAGUE 5 2N 15200
Daniel Penn	officer: EVP, General Counsel	C/O CME MEDIA SERVICES LIMITED BRANCH KRIZENECKEHO NAM. 1078/5A PRAGUE 2N 15200
Nin Michael Del	officer: co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O CME MEDIA SERVICES LIMITED BRANCH, KRIZENECKEHO NAM. 1078/5A, PRAGUE 2N 15200
Alfred W Langer	director	C/O CME MEDIA SERVICES LIMITED BRANCH KRIZENECKEHO NAM. 1078/5A PRAGUE 2N 15200
John Billock	director	C/O CME MEDIA SERVICES LIMITED BRANCH KRIZENECKEHO NAM. 1078/5A PRAGUE 2N 15200
Kelli Turner	director	C/O CME MEDIA SERVICES LTD, KRIZENECKEHO NAM. 1078/5A, PRAGUE 2N 15200
David Sturgeon	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O CME MEDIA SERVICES LIMITED BRANCH KRIZENECKEHO NAM. 1078/5A PRAGUE 2N 15200
Parm Sandhu	director	C/O MEDIA SERVICES LIMITED BRANCH KRIZENECKEHO NAM. 1078/5A PRAGUE 2N 15200
Peter H Knag	director	208 S AKARD STREET DALLAS TX 75202
Turner Theodore Mckinley Iii	director	ONE TIME WARNER CENTER NEW YORK NY 10019
At&t Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	208 S. AKARD ST ATTN : JAMES LACY DALLAS TX 75202
Bruce Maggin	director	C/O CME MEDIA SERVICES LIMITED, KRIZENECKEHO NAM 1078/5A, PRAGUE 2N 15200
Time Warner Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	ONE TIME WARNER CENTER, NEW YORK NY 10019
Tw Media Holdings Llc	director, 10 percent owner	ONE TIME WARNER CENTER NEW YORK NY 10019
Time Warner Media Holdings B.v.	director, 10 percent owner	ONE TIME WARNER CENTER NEW YORK NY 10019