Cerus (CERS) Predictability Rank

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What is Cerus Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cerus Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cerus Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cerus (CERS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Cerus Corp (NAS:CERS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CU2:Germany

Address

1220 Concord Avenue, Suite 600, Concord, CA, USA, 94520

Website

http://www.cerus.com

Cerus Corp is a biomedical products company focused on the field of blood transfusion safety. The INTERCEPT Blood System is designed to reduce the risk of transfusion-transmitted infections by inactivating a broad range of pathogens such as viruses, bacteria, and parasites. The company sells its INTERCEPT platelet and plasma systems in the United States of America, Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States countries, the Middle East, and selected countries in other regions around the world. The firm continues to operate in only one segment: Blood safety and generates revenue from the same.

Executives

Eric Bjerkholt	director	132 PURDURE AVENUE, KENGSINGTON CA 94708
Ann Lucena	director	C/O CERUS CORPORATION, 1220 CONCORD AVE. SUITE 600, CONCORD CA 94520
Swisher Daniel N Jr	director	C/O SUNESIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 395 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 400, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Gail Schulze	director	3451 WELLS ROAD, MALVERN PA 19355
Laurence M Corash	director	C/O CERUS CORP, 2411 STENWELL DRIVE, CONCORD CA 94520
William Mariner Greenman	officer: President, Cerus Europe	C/O CERUS CORPORATION, 2411 STANWELL DRIVE, CONCORD CA 94520
Chrystal Menard	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O CERUS CORPORATION, 2550 STANWELL DRIVE, CONCORD CA 94520
Kevin Dennis Green	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O CERUS CORPORATION, 2411 STANWELL DRIVE, CONCORD CA 94520
Richard J Benjamin	officer: Chief Medical Officer	15 WHITE PINE ROAD, NEWTON MA 02464
Vivek K Jayaraman	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	3910 BRICKWAY BLVD, SANTA ROSA CA 95403
Hua Shan	director	C/O CERUS CORPORATION, 1220 CONCORD AVE., STE. 600, CONCORD CA 94520
Carol Moore	officer: SR. V.P. Regulatory, Clinical	C/O CERUS CORPORATION, 2550 STANWELL DRIVE, CONCORD CA 94520
Timothy B Anderson	director	C/O JAN STERN REED BAXTER INTERNATIONAL, ONE BAXTER PARKWAY DF2 2W, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Timothy L. Moore	director	C/O KITE PHARMA, INC., 2225 COLORADO AVE., SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Frank Witney	director	940 WINTER STREET, C/O PERKINELMER, WALTHAM MA 02451