Cabot (CBT) Predictability Rank

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What is Cabot Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cabot Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cabot Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cabot (CBT) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Cabot Corp (NYSE:CBT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CBT:Germany CBT:Germany

Address

Two Seaport Lane, Suite 1400, Boston, MA, USA, 02210

Website

https://www.cabotcorp.com

Cabot Corp manufactures and sells a variety of chemicals, materials, and chemical-based products. The company organizes itself into two segments based on the product type. The reinforcement materials segment, which generates more revenue than any other segment, sells rubber-grade carbon black products used in hoses and belts in automobiles. The performance chemicals segment sells ink-jet colorants and metal oxides used in the automotive and construction industries.

Executives

Erica Mclaughlin	officer: Senior Vice President, CFO	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
Karen A Kalita	officer: SVP and General Counsel	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
Hobart Kalkstein	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
Michelle Elizabeth Williams	director	6555 WEST GOOD HOPE ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Sean D Keohane	officer: Vice President	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
Raffiq Nathoo	director	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1400, BOSTON MA 02210
Douglas G Delgrosso	director
Lisa M Dumont	officer: Controller	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
Jeff Ji Zhu	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
Christine Y Yan	director	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
John R Doubman	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
Frank Anders Wilson	director	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
Patrick M. Prevost	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COMPANY, 10000 ENERGY DRIVE, SPRING TX 77389-4954
Nicholas S. Cross	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
Brian A Berube	officer: Vice President,General Counsel	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210