Badger Meter (Badger Meter) Predictability Rank

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What is Badger Meter Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Badger Meter Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Badger Meter (Badger Meter) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Badger Meter Inc (NYSE:BMI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

33B:Germany 33B:Germany

Address

4545 West Brown Deer Road, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53233

Website

https://www.badgermeter.com

Badger Meter Inc is an innovator, manufacturer, and marketer of products incorporating flow measurement, quality, control, and other system solutions serving markets. The company's products measure water, oil, chemicals, and other fluids, and provide and communicate timely measurement data. Badger's product lines include two categories: sales of water meters, radios, software, and related technologies, and water quality monitoring solutions to water utilities (utility water) and sales of meters and other sensing instruments, valves, software, and other solutions for industrial applications in water, wastewater, and other industries (flow instrumentation). It derives a majority of its revenues from the United States.

Executives

Todd A. Adams	director	4701 WEST GREENFIELD AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53214
Kimberly K Stoll	officer: VP-Marketing	4545 W BROWN DEER ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Fred J Begale	officer: VP-Engineering	4545 W BROWN DEER ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Richard Htwe	officer: VP-Global Operations	4545 W. BROWN DEER ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Lars Bo Kristensen	officer: VP-Global Flow and Intl Water	4545 W. BROWN DEER ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Bergum William R A	officer: VP-Gen. Counsel and Secretary	P O BOX 245036, 4545 W BROWN DEER RD, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Xia Liu	director	ONE ENERGY PLACE, PENSACOLA FL 32520
Gregory M Gomez	officer: VP-Engineering	4545 W BROWN DEER RD, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Melanie K. Cook	director	4545 W. BROWN DEER ROAD, P.O. BOX 245036, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Matthew L Stuyvenberg	officer: Vice President-Water Quality	4545 W BROWN DEER ROAD, P.O. BOX 245036, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Henry F Brooks	director	4545 W. BROWN DEER ROAD, P.O. BOX 245036, MILWAUKEE WI 53224-9536
Gail A Lione	director	C/O HARLEY DAVIDSON, 3700 W. JUNEAU AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Sheryl Hopkins	officer: VP - Human Resources	4545 W. BROWN DEER ROAD, P.O. BOX 245036, MILWAUKEE WI 53224-9536
Richard A Meeusen	director, officer: President & CEO, other: Co-trustee, Officers Voting Tr	P O BOX 23099, MILWAUKEE WI 532230099
James W Mcgill	director	8550 MOSLEY ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77075