Ball (BALL) Predictability Rank

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What is Ball Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ball Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ball (BALL) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Ball Corp (NYSE:BALL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BL8:Germany

Address

9200 West 108th Circle, Westminster, CO, USA, 80021

Website

https://www.ball.com

Ball is the world's largest metal can manufacturer with market share over 40% in its three main regions (North America, Europe, and South America). The company is focused on increasing capacity amid a wave of new developed-market demand, while also investing in faster-growing emerging-market economies. Ball maintains a small presence in the U.S. defense industry through its aerospace segment. Ball spun-off its glass jar business in 1993 and is now owned by Newell. The company reports four segments—beverage packaging, North and Central America (44% of revenue), beverage packaging, EMEA (25%), beverage packaging, South America (14%), aerospace (14%)—and it generated $15.3 billion in revenue in 2022.

Executives

Ronald J. Lewis	officer: SR VP & COO	C/O COCA-COLA ENTERPRISES, 2500 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY, NW, 14TH FLOOR, ATLANTA GA 30339
Howard H Yu	officer: E.V.P and C.F.O	250 S. KRAEMER BLVD., BREA CA 92821
Hannah S. Lim	officer: SVP, CLO & CORP SEC	2135 WEST MAPLE ROAD, TROY MI 48084
Deron Goodwin	officer: Vice President & Treasurer	9200 W. 108TH CIRCLE, WESTMINSTER CO 80021
David A Kaufman	officer: President, Ball Aerospace	9200 W. 108TH CIRCLE, WESTMINSTER CO 80021
John A Hayes	officer: VP, CORP STR, MKTG & PROD DEV	C/O BALL CORP, 10 LONGS PEAK DR, BROOMFIELD CO 80021-2510
Daniel William Fisher	officer: Sr VP & COO Global Bev Pkg	2526 SPRUCE MEADOWS DRIVE, BROOMFIELD CO 80023
Cynthia Niekamp	director	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Betty J. Sapp	director	C/O BALL CORPORATION, 10 LONGS PEAK DRIVE, BROOMFIELD CO 80021-2510
Stacey J. Panayiotou	officer: SVP and CHRO	9200 W. 108TH CIRCLE, WESTMINSTER CO 80021
Nate C Carey	officer: Vice President & Controller	10 LONGS PEAK DRIVE, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Dune Ives	director	9200 W. 108TH CIRCLE, WESTMINSTER CO 80021
Pedro Henrique Mariani	director	10 LONGS PEAK DRIVE, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Michael J Cave	director	C/O ESTERLINE TECHNOLOGIES CORP, 500 108TH AVE NE, SUITE 1500, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Georgia R Nelson	director	C/O TOWER AUTOMOTIVE INC, 27175 HAGGERTY ROAD, NOVI MI 48377-3626