Barnes & Noble (Barnes & Noble) Predictability Rank

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What is Barnes & Noble Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Barnes & Noble Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Barnes & Noble (Barnes & Noble) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Barnes & Noble Inc (NYSE:BKS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

122 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10011

Website

http://www.barnesandnobleinc.com

Barnes & Noble is a United States-based company that is mainly engaged in retail of books and products of content, digital media, and educational products. The company operates in a multichannel model, including a physical bookstore network throughout the country, an e-commerce platform on BN.com, and its Nook digital business. The company offers books, magazines, music, DVDs, newspapers, and entertainment content, along with e-reading products under the Nook brand. Retail sales from physical stores and BN.com account for the majority of the company's total revenue.

Executives

Al Ferrara	director	433 LAWNDALE DRIVE, SOUTH SALT LAKE CITY UT 84115
Mark D Carleton	director	12300 LIBERTY BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Scott S Cowen	director	7=6823 ST CHARLES AVE, NEW ORLEANS LA 70118
William Earl Wood	officer: Exec. VP, Pres. of Digital	1901 CAPITAL PARKWAY, AUSTIN TX 78746
George Jr Campbell	director	4 IRVING PLACE, NEW YORK NY 10003
Patricia Higgins	director	11780 U.S. HIGHWAY 1, SUITE 600, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33408
Irwin D Simon	director	C/O THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP INC., 1111 MARCUS AVENUE, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042
Leonard Riggio	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	122 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Allen W Lindstrom	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BARNES & NOBLE, INC., 122 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Bradley A. Feuer	officer: VP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Secy	C/O BARNES & NOBLE, INC., 122 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Paul B Guenther	director	C/O GABELLI ASSET MANAGEMENT INC, ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 16580
Joseph Charles Gorman	officer: Executive VP, Operations	C/O GNC HOLDINGS, INC. 300 SIXTH AVENUE PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Tim Mantel	officer: Chief Merchandising Officer	C/O BARNES & NOBLE, INC 122 FIFTH AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10011
Carl S Hauch	officer: Vice President, Stores	ADVANCE AUTO PARTS, INC, 5008 AIRPORT RD, ROANOKE VA 24012
Demos Parneros	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	483 BAY ST, 7TH FL NORTH TOWER, TORONTOON A1 999999999