Franklin Resources (Franklin Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Franklin Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Franklin Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Franklin Resources (Franklin Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Franklin Resources Inc (NYSE:BEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FRK:Germany FRK:Germany

Address

One Franklin Parkway, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94403

Website

https://www.franklinresources.com

Franklin Resources provides investment services for individual and institutional investors. At the end of October 2023, Franklin had $1.335 trillion in managed assets, composed primarily of equity (31%), fixed-income (35%), multi-asset/balanced (11%) funds, alternatives (19%) and money market funds (4%). Distribution tends to be weighted equally between retail investors (50% of AUM) and institutional accounts (48%), with high-net-worth clients accounting for the remainder. Franklin is one of the more global of the U.S.-based asset managers we cover, with more than a third of its assets under management invested in global/international strategies and 29% of managed assets sourced from clients domiciled outside the United States.

Executives

Alok Sethi	officer: Reg. S-K Executive Officer	ONE FRANKLING PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Mariann H Byerwalter	director	C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC., ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY 920/2, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Terrence Murphy	officer: Section 16 Officer	CITIGROUP ASSET MANAGEMENT, 300 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, 4TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
Jennifer M Johnson	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC., ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403-1906
Jed A. Plafker	officer: Reg. S-K Executive Officer	ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Thomas C Merchant	officer: EVP, General Counsel	LEGG MASON, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Gwen L Shaneyfelt	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Karen Matsushima King	director	C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC., ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
John Y Kim	director	51 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
John W Thiel	director	C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC., ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Alexander S Friedman	director	C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC., ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Adam Benjamin Spector	officer: EVP, Global Advisory Services	620 EIGHTH AVENUE, 49TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Craig Steven Tyle	officer: Exec VP and General Counsel	ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403-1906
Anthony Noto	director	C/O SOFI TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 234 1ST STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Johnson Rupert H Jr	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Vice Chairman	C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC, ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403