AZZ (AZZ) Predictability Rank

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What is AZZ Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AZZ Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AZZ (AZZ) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » AZZ Inc (NYSE:AZZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AI7:Germany

Address

3100 West 7th Street, Suite 500, One Museum Place, Fort Worth, TX, USA, 76107

Website

https://www.azz.com

AZZ Inc is a provider of galvanizing and a variety of metal coating solutions and coil coating solutions to a broad range of end markets in North America. In its Metal Coatings segment, the company offers metal finishing services to protect against corrosion, such as hot dip galvanizing, spin galvanizing, powder coating, anodizing, and plating. The Precoat Metals Segment offers aesthetic and corrosion-resistant coatings for steel and aluminum coils.

Executives

Tiffany Moseley	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ONE MUSEUM PLACE, 3100 WEST 7TH STREET, SUITE 500, FORT WORTH TX 76107
Ken Lavelle	officer: President & GM - Electrical	ONE MUSEUM PLACE, 3100 W. 7TH STREET, SUITE 500, FORT WORTH TX 76107
Kurt L. Russell	officer: COO - Precoat Metals	ONE MUSEUM PLACE, 3100 WEST 7TH STREET, SUITE 500, FORT WORTH TX 76107
Philip A Schlom	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O PARKER DRILLING COMPANY, 5 GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77046
Thomas E Ferguson	director, officer: President and CEO	ONE MUSEUM PLACE, SUITE 500, 3100 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76107
David Kaden	director	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Tara D Mackey	officer: VP Chief Legal Officer	ONE MUSEUM PLACE, SUITE 500, 3100 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76116
Bryan Lee Stovall	officer: SVP - Metal Coatings	ONE MUSEUM PLACE, SUITE 500, 3100 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76107
Clive A Grannum	director	OLIN CORPORATION, 190 CARONDELET PLAZA, SUITE 1530, CLAYTON MO 63105
Carol R Jackson	director	777 E. WISCONSIN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Gary L. Hill	officer: President & GM-Industrial	ONE MUSEUM PLACE, 3100 W. 7TH STREET, SUITE 500, FORT WORTH TX 76107
Michael Doucet	officer: SVP - Alternative Coatings	ONE MUSEUM PLACE, 3100 W. 7TH STREET, SUITE 500, FORT WORTH TX 76107
Kevern R Joyce	director	ONE MUSEUM PLACE, SUITE 500, 3100 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76107
Paul Wesley Fehlman	other: Finance	ONE MUSEUM PLACE, SUITE 500, 3100 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76107
Matthew Varley Emery	officer: VP CHIEF INFORMATION OFFICER	ONE MUSEUM PLACE, SUITE 500, 3100 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76107