ASGN (ASGN) Predictability Rank

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What is ASGN Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ASGN Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ASGN (ASGN) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » ASGN Inc (NYSE:ASGN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4400 Cox Road, Suite 110, Glen Allen, VA, USA, 23060

Website

https://www.asgn.com

ASGN Inc is a provider of information technology (IT) services and professional solutions, including technology, creative, and digital, across the commercial and government sectors. It operates through two segments, Commercial and Federal Government. The Commercial Segment, which is their largest segment, provides consulting, creative digital marketing, and permanent placement services to Fortune 1000 clients and mid-market companies. The Federal Government Segment provides mission-critical solutions to the Department of Defense, intelligence agencies, and civilian agencies.

Executives

Jonathan S Holman	director	C/O ASGN INCORPORATED, 26745 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Theodore S. Hanson	officer: EVP, ASGN	4400 COX ROAD, SUITE 110, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Randolph C Blazer	officer: Pres, Apex-a sub of the Issuer	C/O ASGN INCORPORATED, 26745 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Jennifer Hankes Painter	officer: VP, General Counsel, Secretary	C/O ASGN INCORPORATED, 26745 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Rose Cunningham	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	4400 COX ROAD, SUITE 110, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Arshad Matin	director	26745 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Marie Perry	officer: Exec VP, CFO	26745 MALIBU HILLS RD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Mark A. Frantz	other: Board Adviser	1300 CALDER ROAD, MCLEAN VA 22101
Edward L Pierce	officer: Exec VP, CFO	1439 WINDY MOUNTAIN AVE., WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91362
Edwin A. Sheridan	director	ON ASSIGNMENT, INC., 26745 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Marty R Kittrell	director	C/O ON ASSIGNMENT, INC., 26745 MALIBU HILLS RD., CALABASAS CA 91301
Mariel A Joliet	director	C/O ON ASSIGNMENT, 26745 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Maria R Hawthorne	director	701 WESTERN AVENUE, GLENDALE CA 91201
Carol Lindstrom	director	5994 SILVERADO TRAIL, NAPA CA 94558
Jeremy M Jones	director	2532 DUPONT AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92612