Air Products & Chemicals (Air Products & Chemicals) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1961. Start your Free Trial

What is Air Products & Chemicals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Air Products & Chemicals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Air Products & Chemicals Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Air Products & Chemicals's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Air Products & Chemicals (Air Products & Chemicals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Air Products & Chemicals Inc (NYSE:APD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1APD:Italy AP3:Germany AP3:Germany AP3:Germany A1PD34:Brazil APCD:Austria

Address

1940 Air Products Boulevard, Allentown, PA, USA, 18106-5500

Website

https://www.airproducts.com

Since its founding in 1940, Air Products has become one of the leading industrial gas suppliers globally, with operations in 50 countries and 19,000 employees. The company is the largest supplier of hydrogen and helium in the world. It has a unique portfolio serving customers in a number of industries, including chemicals, energy, healthcare, metals, and electronics. Air Products generated $12.6 billion in revenue in fiscal 2023.

Executives

Jeffrey Kutz	officer: VP, Controller & PAO	1940 AIR PRODUCTS BLVD., ALLENTOWN PA 18106-5500
Seifi Ghasemi	director	100 OVERLOOK CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Sean D Major	officer: Executive VP & General Counsel	100 E. WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 2780, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Tonit M Calaway	director	HARLEY-DAVIDSON MOTOR COMPANY, 3700 WEST JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Wayne Thomas Smith	director	1940 AIR PRODUCTS BLVD., ALLENTOWN PA 18106
Melissa N. Schaeffer	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	1940 AIR PRODUCTS BLVD., ALLENTOWN PA 18106
Edward L Monser	director
Lisa Ann Davis	director	2555 TELEGRAPH RD, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Russell A Flugel	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O THE MOSAIC COMPANY, 101 EAST KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
Charles I Cogut	director	7201 HAMILTON BOULEVARD, ALLENTOWN PA 18195
Samir Serhan	officer: Executive Vice President	7201 HAMILTON BLVD., ALLENTOWN PA 18195
Jennifer Grant	officer: VP	7201 HAMILTON BLVD, ALLENTOWN PA 18195
John D. Stanley	officer: SR VP and General Counsel	7201 HAMILTON BOULEVARD, ALLENTOWN PA 18195-1501
Guillermo Novo	officer: Senior V.P.	AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS, INC., 7201 HAMILTON BOULEVARD, ALLENTOWN PA 18195
Painter Corning F.	officer: Senior V.P.	7201 HAMILTON BOULEVARD, ALLENTOWN PA 18195-1501