TD Ameritrade Holding (TD Ameritrade Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is TD Ameritrade Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TD Ameritrade Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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TD Ameritrade Holding (TD Ameritrade Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (NAS:AMTD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

200 South 108th Avenue, Omaha, NE, USA, 68154

Website

http://www.amtd.com

TD Ameritrade is a leading retail brokerage and advisor services firm. Its largest shareholder is Toronto-Dominion Bank, which beneficially owns more than 40%. The firm offers trading in stocks, bonds, options, and other asset classes. Recently, TD Ameritrade derived approximately 55% of its revenue from interest-rate-related income and fees, 35% from commissions and transaction fees, and 10% from investment product and other revenue. Practically all of the company's revenue is generated in the United States. TD Ameritrade has a pending merger with Charles Schwab that is expected to close in the second half of 2020.

Executives

Lorenzo A Bettino	director
Wilbur J Prezzano	director	13515 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PL, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Joseph H Moglia	director	AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP, 4211 S 102ND ST, OMAHA NE 68127
Todd M Ricketts	director	C/O AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP, 4211 SOUTH 102ND ST, OMAHA NE 68127
Brian M Levitt	director	C/O DOMTAR CORPORATION, 234 KINGSLEY PARK DRIVE, FORT MILL SC 29715
V Ann Hailey	director	THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Allan R Tessler	director	C/O EPOCH HOLDING CORPORATION, 640 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK, NY 10019
Dominion Bank Toronto	10 percent owner	66 WELLINGTON STREET WEST, 12TH FLOOR, TD TOWER, TORONTO, ONTARIO A6 M5K 1A2
Td Group Us Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	251 LITTLE FALLS DRIVE, WILMINGTON DE 19808
Mark L Mitchell	director	AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP 4211 S 102ND ST OMAHA NE 68127
Td Luxembourg International Holdings S.a R.l.	10 percent owner	46A, AVENUE JOHN F. KENNEDY LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2951
Irene R Miller	director	C/O BARNES & NOBLE INC, 122 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Karen E. Maidment	director	TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORPORATION 6940 COLUMBIA GATEWAY DR., SUITE 200 COLUMBIA MD 21046
Steven M. Quirk	officer: EVP, Trader Group	C/O ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC., 85 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Jon C. Peterson	officer: Interim CFO	200 S. 108TH AVE OMAHA NE 68154