Alkermes (Alkermes) Predictability Rank

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What is Alkermes Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alkermes Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Alkermes Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Alkermes (Alkermes) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Alkermes PLC (NAS:ALKS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8AK:Germany

Address

1 Burlington Road, Connaught House, Dublin, IRL, D04 C5Y6

Website

https://www.alkermes.com

Alkermes PLC is a fully integrated biotechnology company that applies its proprietary technologies to research, develop, and commercialize pharmaceutical products designed for unmet medical needs in therapeutic areas. The company utilizes several collaborative arrangements to develop and commercialize products and, in so doing, access technological, financial, marketing, manufacturing, and other resources. Alkermes either purchases active drug products from third parties or receives them from its third-party licensees to formulate products using its technologies.

Executives

Cato T Laurencin	director	C/O UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT, 263 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06030-3800
Christian Todd Nichols	officer: SVP, Chief Commercial Officer	852 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Nancy Wysenski	director	2200 SUNBURST STREET, CHATSWORTH CA 90401
Daglio David Angelo Jr.	director	ALKERMES, 852 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Christopher I Wright	director	C/O CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, 18TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Michael J Landine	officer: SVP, Corp Dev., Alkermes, Inc.	88 SIDNEY ST, CAMBRIDGE MA 021394136
Richard F Pops	director, officer: Director and CEO, Alkermes plc	10555 SCIENCE CENTER DR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Shane Cooke	officer: President, Alkermes plc	TREASURY BUILDING LOWER GRAND CANAL ST., DUBLIN 2 L2 00000
Blair Curtis Jackson	officer: EVP, Chief Operating Officer	852 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Snyderman Nancy Lynn Md	director	37 PHEASANT HILL ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Craig C. Hopkinson	officer: SVP, Med Dev/Med Affairs, CMO	852 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Emily Peterson Alva	director	C/O AMNEAL PHARMACEUTICALS LLC, 400 CROSSING BOULEVARD, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Iain Michael Brown	officer: VP, Finance & CAO	14 ROYALSTON AVENUE, WINCHESTER MA 01890
Brian P Mckeon	director	IDEXX LABORATORIES, ONE IDEXX DRIVE, WESTBROOK ME 04092
David Joseph Gaffin	officer: SVP, CLO, Alkermes, Inc.	852 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451