Apartment Investment & Management Co (Apartment Investment & Management Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Apartment Investment & Management Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Apartment Investment & Management Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Apartment Investment & Management Co (Apartment Investment & Management Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Apartment Investment & Management Co (NYSE:AIV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

UMH CSR NXRT ELME VRE BRT FREVS CLPR BHM IRT AVB EQR INVH SUI MAA ESS ELS AMH UDR CPT

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4582 South Ulster Street, Suite 1450, Denver, CO, USA, 80237

Website

https://www.aimco.com

Apartment Investment & Management Co is a self-managed real estate investment trust. It is focused on property development, redevelopment and various other value-creating investment strategies, targeting the U.S multifamily market. Its operating segments are Development and Redevelopment; Operating, and Other. The company generates majority of revenue from operating segment.

Executives

Sherry L Rexroad	director	2 BAYBERRY CIRCLE, AMBLER PA 19002
Kellie Dreyer	officer: Senior Vice President and CAO	4582 S. ULSTER ST. SUITE 1450, DENVER CO 80237
James Patrick Sullivan	director	34 SOUTH PEAK, LAGUNA NIGUEL CA 92677
Jay P Leupp	director	16435 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 320, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254
Michael A Stein	director	4582 S. ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237
Kirk Sykes	director	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Robert A. Miller	director	6649 WESTWOOD BLVD, SUITE 500, ORLANDO FL 32821
R Dary Stone	director	3344 PEACHTREE ROAD, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30326
Patricia L Gibson	director	545 E JOHN CARPENTER FREEWAY, SUITE 1300, IRVING TX 75062
Quincy Allen	director	4582 S. ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1700, DENVER CO 80237
Deborah Smith	director	4582 S. ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1450, DENVER CO 80237
Terry Considine	director	4582 SOUTH ULSTER STREET PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237
Jennifer Johnson	officer: EVP CAO and General Counsel	4582 S. ULSTER STREET, STE 1400, DENVER CO 80237
Wesley William Powell	director, officer: President and CEO	4582 S. ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237
Lynn Stanfield	officer: EVP and CFO	4582 S. ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237