Applied Industrial Technologies (Applied Industrial Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Applied Industrial Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Applied Industrial Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Applied Industrial Technologies (Applied Industrial Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » Applied Industrial Technologies Inc (NYSE:AIT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AT4:Germany

Address

1 Applied Plaza, Cleveland, OH, USA, 44115

Website

https://www.applied.com

Applied Industrial Technologies Inc is a distributor of industrial products to the maintenance, repair, and operations market and the original equipment manufacturing industry. Further, the company provides engineering and design services for industrial and fluid power applications. The products include bearings, power transmission components, fluid power components and systems, industrial rubber products, linear motion components, safety products, oilfield supplies, and other industrial and maintenance supplies. Fluid products include hydraulic, pneumatic, lubrication, and filtration systems and components. Applied Industrial Technologies operates primarily in North America, Australia, and New Zealand.

Executives

Neil A Schrimsher	director, officer: President and CEO	ONE APPLIED PLAZA, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Peter C Wallace	director	C/O ROBBINS & MYERS, INC., 51 PLUM STREET, SUITE 260, DAYTON OH 45440
Hoffner Warren E Iii	officer: VP-General Mgr, Fluid Power	ONE APPLIED PLAZA, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Kurt W. Loring	officer: VP-Chief HR Officer	ONE APPLIED PLAZA, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Mary Dean Hall	director	4920 O'HEAR AVENUE, SUITE 400, NORTH CHARLESTON SC 29405
Jon S Ploetz	officer: VP-General Counsel & Secretary	ONE APPLIED PLAZA, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Fred D Bauer	officer: VP-General Counsel & Secretary	ONE APPLIED PLZ, CLEVELAND OH 44115-5056
Vincent K Petrella	director
Shelly Marie Chadwick	director	6070 PARKLAND BLVD, MAYFIELD HTS. OH 44124
Christopher Macey	other: Corporate Controller	5995 MAYFAIR ROAD, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Peter A Dorsman	director
Jason W Vasquez	officer: VP-Sales & Marketing-USSC	ONE APPLIED PLAZA, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Jerry Sue Thornton	director	C/O BARNES & NOBLE EDUCATION, INC., 120 MOUNTAIN VIEW BLVD, BASKING RIDGE NJ 07920
Madhuri A Andrews	director	2525 STEMMONS FRWY, DALLAS TX 75207
Green Edith Kelly	director	3131 DEMOCRAT ROAD BLDG B206, MEMPHIS TN 38118