What is Archer-Daniels Midland Co Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Archer-Daniels Midland Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Archer-Daniels Midland Co (Archer-Daniels Midland Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
77 West Wacker Drive, Suite 4600, Chicago, IL, USA, 60601
Archer-Daniels Midland is a major processor of oilseeds, corn, wheat, and other agricultural commodities. The company is also one of the largest grain merchandisers through its extensive network of logistical assets to store and transport crops around the globe. ADM also runs a nutrition business that focuses on both human and animal ingredients and is a large producer of corn-based sweeteners, starches, and ethanol.
Executives
| Regina Jones |
officer: Senior Vice President |
7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027 |
| Strader Fruit Molly L |
officer: Vice Pres., Corp. Controller |
77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601 |
| Brabander Ellen De |
director |
2500 INNOVATION WAY, GREENFIELD IN 46140 |
| D Cameron Findlay |
officer: Senior Vice President |
77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 2600, CHICAGO IL 60601 |
| Juan R Luciano |
officer: Executive V.P. & COO |
77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601 |
| Francisco J Sanchez |
director |
77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601 |
| Gregory A Morris |
officer: Senior Vice President |
77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601 |
| Collins James C. Jr. |
director |
1007 MARKET STREET, D-9058, WILMINGTON DE 19898 |
| Vikram Luthar |
officer: Vice President & Treasurer |
ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND COMPANY, 77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601 |
| Christopher M Cuddy |
officer: President-Corn |
77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601 |
| Vincent F Macciocchi |
officer: Senior Vice President |
77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601 |
| Ray G Young |
officer: Sr. Vice President |
77 WEST WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601 |
| Theodore Iii Colbert |
director |
C/O THE BOEING COMPANY, 100 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, CHICAGO IL 60606-1596 |
| Jennifer L Weber |
officer: Senior Vice President |
1000 LOWES BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117 |
| Joseph D. Taets |
officer: Vice President |
77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601 |
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