Adicet Bio (Adicet Bio) Predictability Rank

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What is Adicet Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Adicet Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Adicet Bio (Adicet Bio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Adicet Bio Inc (NAS:ACET) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1IJA:Germany 1IJA:Germany

Address

200 Clarendon Street, Floor 6, Boston, MA, USA, 02116

Website

https://www.adicetbio.com

Adicet Bio Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company discovering and developing allogeneic gamma delta T cell therapies for cancer and other diseases. The company is advancing a pipeline of off-the-shelf gamma delta T cells, engineered with chimeric antigen receptors and T cell receptor-like antibodies to enhance selective tumor targeting, facilitate innate and adaptive anti-tumor immune response, and improve persistence for durable activity in patients. The company operates and manages its business as one reportable and operating segment, which is the business of research and development of allogeneic immunotherapies for cancer and other diseases.

Executives

Chen Schor	director, officer: See Remarks	PREDIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDINGS, INC., 4 MAGUIRE ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Katie Peng	director	C/O ADICET BIO, INC., 200 BERKELEY STREET, 19TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Steve Dubin	director
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Carl L Gordon	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Don Healey	officer: Chief Technology Officer	2635 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BOULEVARD, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Blake Aftab	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O ADICET BIO, INC., 200 CLARENDON STREET, FLOOR 6, BOSTON MA 02116
Francesco Galimi	officer: Chief Medical Officer	12930 VIA ESPERIA, DEL MAR CA 92014
Aya Jakobovits	director	3135 HUTTON DRIVE, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Orbimed Genesis Gp Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Andrew Sinclair	director	C/O SOLENO THERAPEUTICS INC., 1235 RADIO ROAD, SUITE 110, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Michael Kauffman	director	C/O KARYOPHARM THERAPEUTICS INC., 85 WELLS AVENUE, SECOND FLOOR, NEWTON MA 02459
Bastiano Sanna	director	C/O VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED, 50 NORTHERN AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02210
Orbimed Capital Gp V Llc	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Carrie Krehlik	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	6015 COLTON BLVD, OAKLAND CA 94611