Ambase (Ambase) Predictability Rank

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What is Ambase Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ambase Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ambase (Ambase) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Ambase Corp (OTCPK:ABCP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7857 West Sample Road, Suite 134, Coral Springs, FL, USA, 33065

Website

Ambase Corp is a United States-based holding company. It holds an equity interest in a real estate development property through a joint venture agreement to purchase and develop the real property located in New York, New York.

Executives

Camac Fund, Lp	10 percent owner	CAMAC CAPITAL, LLC, 350 PARK AVENUE, 13TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Richard A Bianco	officer: President & CEO	C/O AMBASE CORP, 100 PUTNAM GREER 3RD FL, GREENWICH CT 06830-6027
Scott Michael Salant	director	C/O AMBASE CORPORATION, 12 LINCOLN BLVD. SUITE # 202, EMERSON NJ 07630
Jerry Y Carnegie	director	C/O AMBASE CORPORATION, 100 PUTNAM GREEN, THIRD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Iszo Capital Lp	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Iszo Capital Management Lp	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Brian L. Sheehy	10 percent owner	415 MADISON AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Iszo Capital Gp Llc	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Joseph R Bianco	officer: Treasurer	C/O AMBASE CORPORATION, 100 PUTNAM GREEN, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Bianco Richard A Jr	director, 10 percent owner	C/O BARRY STRAUSS & ASSOCIATES, 307 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Kenneth M Schmidt	director	C/O AMBASE CORPORATION, 100 PUTNAM GREEN, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Horton Theodore T Jr	director	C/O AMBASE CORPORATION, 100 PUTNAM GREEN, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Alessandra F Bianco	director, 10 percent owner	C/O BARRY STRAUSS & ASSOCIATES, 307 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Barc Investments Llc	10 percent owner	C/O BARRY STRAUSS & ASSOCIATES, 307 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Christina A Bianco	10 percent owner	C/O BARRY STRAUSS & ASSOCIATES, 307 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016