AAON (AAON) Predictability Rank

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What is AAON Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AAON Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AAON (AAON) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » AAON Inc (NAS:AAON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AAO:Germany

Address

2425 South Yukon Avenue, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74107

Website

https://www.aaon.com

AAON Inc is a manufacturer of air-conditioning and heating equipment. The products include rooftop units, chillers, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air-handling units, makeup air units, energy-recovery units, condensing units, geothermal heat pumps, and self-contained units and coils. AAON's products serve the commercial and industrial new construction and replacement markets, primarily in North America.

Executives

Stephen E Wakefield	officer: VP, Engineering	2425 SOUTH YUKON, TULSA OK 74107
Norman H Asbjornson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	AAON INC, 2425 SOUTH YUKON, TULSA OK 74107
Rebecca Thompson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2425 S YUKON AVE, TULSA OK 74107
David Raymond Stewart	director	4221 E. 96TH PLACE, TULSA OK 74137
Gordon Douglas Wichman	officer: Vice President	4300 WILLOW BEND DR., LONGVIEW TX 75602
Robert Teis	officer: VP, Sales and Marketing	6813 FOXBRIAR DR., TULSA OK 74132
Casey Kidwell	officer: VP, Administration	9906 NORTH 108TH EAST PLACE, OWASSO OK 74055
Gary D Fields	director	2425 SOUTH YUKON, TULSA OK 74107
Rony D Gadiwalla	officer: VP, Information Technology	2425 SOUTH YUKON, TULSA OK 74107
Larry Gene Stewart	officer: Vice President	2425 SOUTH YUKON AVE, TULSA OK 74107
Xerxes P Gazder	officer: Chief Information Officer	109 N FORESTVIEW LANE, AURORA IL 60502
Stephen O Leclair	director	3100 CUMBERLAND BLVD, SUITE 1700, ATLANTA GA 30339
Lackey Paul K Jr	director	2200 SOUTH UTICA PL., 6B-GENOA, TULSA OK 74114
Bruce Ware	director	3605 PATIENCE BLVD, DALLAS TX 75236
Christopher Douglas Eason	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2425 S YUKON AVE, TULSA OK 74107