Agilent Technologies (Agilent Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Agilent Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Agilent Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Agilent Technologies (Agilent Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Agilent Technologies Inc (NYSE:A) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

A:Mexico 1A:Italy AG8:Germany AG8:Germany

Address

5301 Stevens Creek Boulevard, Santa Clara, CA, USA, 95051

Website

https://www.agilent.com

Originally spun out of Hewlett-Packard in 1999, Agilent has evolved into a leading life sciences and diagnostics firm. Today, Agilent's measurement technologies serve a broad base of customers with its three operating segments: life science and applied tools, cross lab (consisting of consumables and services related to life science and applied tools), and diagnostics and genomics. Over half of its sales are generated from the biopharmaceutical, chemical, and advanced materials end markets, but it also supports clinical lab, environmental, forensics, food, academic, and government-related organizations. The company is geographically diverse, with operations in the U.S. and China representing the largest country concentrations.

Executives

Philip Binns	officer: Senior Vice President	5301 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Rodney Gonsalves	officer: V.P., Corporate Controller	5301 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Henrik Ancher-jensen	officer: Sr. Vice President	5301 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Michael R. Mcmullen	officer: CEO and President	5301 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., MS 1A-LC, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
George A Scangos	director	C/O EXELIXIS INC, 170 HARBOR WAY, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94083
Otis W Brawley	director	5203 BRISTOL INDUSTRIAL WAY, BUFORD GA 30518
Mikael Dolsten	director	5 GIRALDA FARMS, MADISON NJ 07940
Mala Anand	director	C/O COTIVITI HOLDINGS, INC., 115 PERIMETER CENTER PLACE, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30346
Sue H. Rataj	director	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
Dow R Wilson	director	VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC, 3100 HANSEN WAY MAIL STOP E327, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Boon Hwee Koh	director	C/O AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES, 5301 STEVENS CREEK BLVD, MS 1A-LC, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Heidi Fields	director	5301 STEVENS CREEK BLVD, MS 1A-LC, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Hans Edgar Bishop	director	60 WEST 66TH STREET, 26A, NEW YORK NY 10023
Daniel K Podolsky	director	5301 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Padraig Mcdonnell	officer: Senior Vice President	5301 STEVENS CREEK BLVD, SANTA CLARA CA 95051