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Papa John's International (Papa John's International) Beneish M-Score

: -3.20 (As of Today)
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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -3.2 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Papa John's International's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

PZZA' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.41   Med: -2.93   Max: -2.23
Current: -3.2

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Papa John's International was -2.23. The lowest was -3.41. And the median was -2.93.


Papa John's International Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Papa John's International's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Papa John's International Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.89 -2.96 -2.83 -2.39 -3.20

Papa John's International Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.39 -2.55 -2.90 -2.93 -3.20

Competitive Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, Papa John's International's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Papa John's International Beneish M-Score Distribution

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Papa John's International's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Papa John's International's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Papa John's International Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Papa John's International for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9331+0.528 * 0.9412+0.404 * 0.9832+0.892 * 1.016+0.115 * 0.8828
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0966+4.679 * -0.116504-0.327 * 1.1725
=-3.20

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec23) TTM:Last Year (Dec22) TTM:
Total Receivables was $112 Mil.
Revenue was 571.322 + 522.812 + 514.53 + 527.049 = $2,136 Mil.
Gross Profit was 115.757 + 100.445 + 100.926 + 104.461 = $422 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $231 Mil.
Total Assets was $875 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $479 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $64 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $202 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $305 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $933 Mil.
Net Income was 26.093 + 15.861 + 17.768 + 22.376 = $82 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -3.92 + -1.77 + -1.969 + -1.356 = $-9 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 66.119 + 33.201 + 52.947 + 40.788 = $193 Mil.
Total Receivables was $118 Mil.
Revenue was 526.234 + 510.512 + 522.665 + 542.692 = $2,102 Mil.
Gross Profit was 99.143 + 91.639 + 96.285 + 103.472 = $391 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $251 Mil.
Total Assets was $864 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $447 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $52 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $181 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $265 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $777 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(112.02 / 2135.713) / (118.161 / 2102.103)
=0.052451 / 0.056211
=0.9331

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(390.539 / 2102.103) / (421.589 / 2135.713)
=0.185785 / 0.1974
=0.9412

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (231.018 + 478.71) / 875.005) / (1 - (251.039 + 447.159) / 864.227)
=0.188887 / 0.192113
=0.9832

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=2135.713 / 2102.103
=1.016

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(52.032 / (52.032 + 447.159)) / (64.09 / (64.09 + 478.71))
=0.104233 / 0.118073
=0.8828

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(201.83 / 2135.713) / (181.156 / 2102.103)
=0.094502 / 0.086178
=1.0966

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((932.616 + 304.596) / 875.005) / ((776.996 + 265.157) / 864.227)
=1.413948 / 1.205879
=1.1725

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(82.098 - -9.015 - 193.055) / 875.005
=-0.116504

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Papa John's International has a M-score of -3.20 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Papa John's International Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Papa John's International (Papa John's International) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2002 Papa John's Boulevard, Louisville, KY, USA, 40299-2367
Papa John's is one of the largest players in the global QSR pizza market, boasting more than 5,700 restaurants across nearly 50 countries at the end of 2022. The firm operates a predominantly franchised system, owning just shy of 10% of its restaurants and generating revenue from franchise royalties, sales of pizza, and related products at its company-owned stores, and sales from its commissary supply chain. The firm is the third-largest limited-service pizza chain in the U.S. and fourth-largest globally, with a sizable presence in the U.K., China, South Korea, and Chile.
Executives
John W Garratt director 100 MISSION RIDGE, GOODLETTSVILLE TN 37072
Stephen L Gibbs director C/O SCIENTIFIC GAMES CORPORATION, 1500 BLUEGRASS LAKES PARKWAY, ALPHARETTA, GA 30004
John C Miller director
Ravi Thanawala officer: Chief Financial Officer 788 CIRCLE 75 PARKWAY, ATLANTA GA 30339
Christopher K Collins officer: VP, Treasury and Tax 788 CIRCLE 75 PARKWAY, ATLANTA GA 30339
Marvin Boakye officer: Chief People Officer PO BOX 99900, LOUISVILLE KY 40269
Olivia F Kirtley director 6655 LANCER BLVD, SAN ANTONIO TX 78219
Robert Lynch director, officer: President and CEO P. O. BOX 99900, LOUISVILLE KY 40269
Jack H Swaysland officer: SVP, COO - International PO BOX 99900, LOUISVILLE KY 40269
Jeffrey C Smith director 201 E LAS OLAS BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
James Norberg officer: SVP, CROO PO BOX 99900, LOUISVILLE KY 40269
Caroline Miller Oyler officer: SVP, General Counsel P.O. BOX 99900, LOUISVILLE KY 40269
Ann B Gugino officer: Chief Financial Officer 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD, ST. PAUL MN 55120
Steven R Coke officer: VP, IR and Strategy P.O. BOX 99900, LOUISVILLE KY 40269
Amanda Clark officer: Chief Development Officer PO BOX 99900, LOUISVILLE KY 40269