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Alaska Air Group (Alaska Air Group) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $38.69 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is Alaska Air Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-27), Alaska Air Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $38.69. The stock price of Alaska Air Group is $43.96. Therefore, Alaska Air Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.1.

The historical rank and industry rank for Alaska Air Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

ALK' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.35   Med: 0.95   Max: 1.9
Current: 1.14

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Alaska Air Group was 1.90. The lowest was 0.35. And the median was 0.95.

ALK's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
61.52% of 699 companies
in the Transportation industry
Industry Median: 0.84 vs ALK: 1.14

Alaska Air Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Alaska Air Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Alaska Air Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Alaska Air Group Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 88.42 54.06 59.48 46.28 36.47

Alaska Air Group Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 46.47 45.76 41.78 36.47 38.69

Competitive Comparison of Alaska Air Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Airlines subindustry, Alaska Air Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Alaska Air Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Alaska Air Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alaska Air Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Alaska Air Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Alaska Air Group's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $172.96.

Alaska Air Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Mar24)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.7849180867139*172.96+3977*0.8)/125.970
=38.69

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Alaska Air Group  (NYSE:ALK) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Alaska Air Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=43.96/38.691747497643
=1.14

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Alaska Air Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Alaska Air Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Alaska Air Group (Alaska Air Group) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
19300 International Boulevard, Seattle, WA, USA, 98188
Alaska Air Group Inc operates two airlines, Alaska and Horizon in three operating segments. The Mainline segment includes scheduled air transportation on Alaska's Boeing and Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo throughout the U.S., and in parts of Mexico, and Costa Rica. The Regional segment includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers' scheduled air transportation for passengers across a shorter distance network within the U.S. and Canada under capacity purchase agreements (CPA). The Horizon segment includes the capacity sold to Alaska under a CPA. It earns revenues from Passenger tickets, including ticket breakage and net of taxes and fees, Passenger ancillary and Mileage Plan passenger revenue.
Executives
Benito Minicucci officer: EXEC VP/OPS AND COO C/O ALASKA AIRLINES, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD SO, SEATTLE WA 98188
Jason M Berry officer: President, Horizon Air C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD., SEATTLE WA 98188
J Kenneth Thompson director ALASKA AIR GROUP, 19300 PACIFIC HIGHWAY SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98188
Andrea L Schneider officer: VP PEOPLE ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Andrew R Harrison officer: VP/PLNG & REV MGMT C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Shane R Tackett officer: SR VP REV/E-COMMERCE C/O ALASKA AIRLINES, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Dhiren R. Fonseca director C/O NORTHWEST RETAIL PARTNERS, LTD., 224 WESTLAKE AVE N, SUITE 500, SEATTLE WA 98109
Adrienne Rochelle Lofton director C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Daniel Kevin Elwell director C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Knight Jessie J Jr director 4329 FOX BROOK LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Susan J Li director ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Helvi Kay Sandvik director C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
James A Beer director MCKESSON CORPORATION, ONE POST STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Raymond L. Conner director ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Kathleen T Hogan director C/O MICROSOFT CORPORATION, ONE MICROSOFT WAY, REDMOND WA 98052-6399