The Estee Lauder (The Estee Lauder) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $24.04 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), The Estee Lauder's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $24.04.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

The Estee Lauder's Predictability Rank is 3.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for The Estee Lauder is -513.35%.

The historical rank and industry rank for The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

EL' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.69 Med: 0.91 Max: 6.13
Current: 6.13

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of The Estee Lauder was 6.13. The lowest was 0.69. And the median was 0.91.

EL's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked worse than
97.78% of 225 companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry
Industry Median: 1.09 vs EL: 6.13

The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

The Estee Lauder Annual Data

Trend

Jun14

Jun15

Jun16

Jun17

Jun18

Jun19

Jun20

Jun21

Jun22

Jun23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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203.08

146.81

172.25

150.19

59.13

The Estee Lauder Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															99.22	72.09	59.13	34.41	26.22

Competitive Comparison of The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Household & Personal Products subindustry, The Estee Lauder's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

The Estee Lauder's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, The Estee Lauder's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where The Estee Lauder's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 11.30%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> The Estee Lauder's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 11.30%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 11.30%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $1.377.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.113)/(1+0.11) = 1.0027027027027
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

1.377

17.4563

24.04

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(24.04	-	147.45)	/	24.04
	=	-513.35 %

The Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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The Estee Lauder (The Estee Lauder) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » The Estee Lauder Companies Inc (NYSE:EL) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EL:Mexico 1ELX:Italy ELAA:Germany ELAA:Germany ELAA:Germany ELCI34:Brazil ESLA:Austria

Address

767 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10153

Website

https://www.elcompanies.com

Estee Lauder is a leader in the global prestige beauty market, participating across skin care (56% of 2022 sales), makeup (26%), fragrance (14%), and hair care (4%) categories, with top-selling brands such as Estee Lauder, Clinique, M.A.C, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, Bobbi Brown, and Origins. The firm operates in more than 150 countries, generating 26% of revenue from the Americas, 43% from Europe, the Middle East and Africa (including travel retail), and 31% from Asia Pacific. Estee Lauder sells its products through department stores, travel retail, specialty multibrand beauty stores, brand-dedicated freestanding stores, e-commerce, salons/spas, and perfumeries.

Executives

Charlene Barshefsky	director
Jane Lauder	director	767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Hudis Jane Hertzmark	officer: Group President	C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Carl P. Haney	officer: EVP-Global R&D	C/O ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Jennifer Hyman	director	767 FIFTH AVENUE, C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., NEW YORK NY 10153
Fabrizio Freda	officer: President and COO	767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
De La Faverie Stephane	officer: Executive Group President	C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., NEW YORK NY 10153
Michael O'hare	officer: EVP-Global Human Resources	767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Wei Sun Christianson	director	MORGAN STANLEY, TOWER 1, 18 TAIPINGQIAO ST. XICHENG DIST, BEIJING F4 1000032
Barry S Sternlicht	director	STARWOOD CAPITAL GROUP GLOBAL LP, 1601 WASHINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 800, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Angela Wei Dong	director	C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Peter Jueptner	officer: President, International
Arturo Nunez	director	C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Ronald S Lauder	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman Clinique Labs, Inc.	767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
John Demsey	officer: Group President	767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036