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Alaska Air Group (Alaska Air Group) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share : $3.31 (As of Mar. 2024)


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What is Alaska Air Group Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

Alaska Air Group's adjusted free cash flow per share for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was $1.866. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is $3.31 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2024.

During the past 12 months, Alaska Air Group's average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was -15.30% per year. During the past 3 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was -0.30% per year. During the past 5 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 2.40% per year. During the past 10 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 39.30% per year. Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.

During the past 13 years, the highest 3-Year average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate of Alaska Air Group was 165.30% per year. The lowest was -8.10% per year. And the median was 9.50% per year.

As of today (2024-04-27), Alaska Air Group's current stock price is $43.96. Alaska Air Group's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2024 was $3.31. Alaska Air Group's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is 13.28.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Alaska Air Group was 508.33. The lowest was 6.06. And the median was 21.59.


Alaska Air Group Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data

The historical data trend for Alaska Air Group's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Alaska Air Group Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart

Alaska Air Group Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 3.89 3.30 3.97 3.87 3.27

Alaska Air Group Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 3.91 3.82 3.70 3.27 3.31

Competitive Comparison of Alaska Air Group's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share

For the Airlines subindustry, Alaska Air Group's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Alaska Air Group's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Alaska Air Group's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alaska Air Group's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.



Alaska Air Group Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

For example, Alaska Air Group's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare= Free Cash Flow per Share /CPI of Mar. 2024 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2024)
=1.866/129.4194*129.4194
=1.866

Current CPI (Mar. 2024) = 129.4194.

Alaska Air Group Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201406 0.980 100.560 1.261
201409 0.353 100.428 0.455
201412 0.022 99.070 0.029
201503 1.777 99.621 2.309
201506 0.729 100.684 0.937
201509 1.802 100.392 2.323
201512 1.513 99.792 1.962
201603 3.239 100.470 4.172
201606 1.234 101.688 1.571
201609 1.114 101.861 1.415
201612 0.088 101.863 0.112
201703 2.043 102.862 2.570
201706 2.558 103.349 3.203
201709 -0.451 104.136 -0.561
201712 0.392 104.011 0.488
201803 0.574 105.290 0.706
201806 1.870 106.317 2.276
201809 1.041 106.507 1.265
201812 -1.582 105.998 -1.932
201903 2.849 107.251 3.438
201906 2.792 108.070 3.344
201909 1.241 108.329 1.483
201912 1.376 108.420 1.643
202003 -0.700 108.902 -0.832
202006 1.938 108.767 2.306
202009 -1.949 109.815 -2.297
202012 -2.967 109.897 -3.494
202103 1.126 111.754 1.304
202106 6.032 114.631 6.810
202109 -1.525 115.734 -1.705
202112 0.211 117.630 0.232
202203 -0.008 121.301 -0.009
202206 4.726 125.017 4.892
202209 -1.098 125.227 -1.135
202212 -5.615 125.222 -5.803
202303 0.769 127.348 0.782
202306 0.776 128.729 0.780
202309 -0.666 129.860 -0.664
202312 -4.358 129.419 -4.358
202403 1.866 129.419 1.866

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.


Alaska Air Group  (NYSE:ALK) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.

For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Alaska Air Group's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=43.96/3.31
=13.28

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Alaska Air Group was 508.33. The lowest was 6.06. And the median was 21.59.


Be Aware

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.


Alaska Air Group Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Alaska Air Group's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Alaska Air Group (Alaska Air Group) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
19300 International Boulevard, Seattle, WA, USA, 98188
Alaska Air Group Inc operates two airlines, Alaska and Horizon in three operating segments. The Mainline segment includes scheduled air transportation on Alaska's Boeing and Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo throughout the U.S., and in parts of Mexico, and Costa Rica. The Regional segment includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers' scheduled air transportation for passengers across a shorter distance network within the U.S. and Canada under capacity purchase agreements (CPA). The Horizon segment includes the capacity sold to Alaska under a CPA. It earns revenues from Passenger tickets, including ticket breakage and net of taxes and fees, Passenger ancillary and Mileage Plan passenger revenue.
Executives
Benito Minicucci officer: EXEC VP/OPS AND COO C/O ALASKA AIRLINES, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD SO, SEATTLE WA 98188
Jason M Berry officer: President, Horizon Air C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD., SEATTLE WA 98188
J Kenneth Thompson director ALASKA AIR GROUP, 19300 PACIFIC HIGHWAY SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98188
Andrea L Schneider officer: VP PEOPLE ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Andrew R Harrison officer: VP/PLNG & REV MGMT C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Shane R Tackett officer: SR VP REV/E-COMMERCE C/O ALASKA AIRLINES, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Dhiren R. Fonseca director C/O NORTHWEST RETAIL PARTNERS, LTD., 224 WESTLAKE AVE N, SUITE 500, SEATTLE WA 98109
Adrienne Rochelle Lofton director C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Daniel Kevin Elwell director C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Knight Jessie J Jr director 4329 FOX BROOK LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Susan J Li director ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Helvi Kay Sandvik director C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
James A Beer director MCKESSON CORPORATION, ONE POST STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Raymond L. Conner director ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Kathleen T Hogan director C/O MICROSOFT CORPORATION, ONE MICROSOFT WAY, REDMOND WA 98052-6399