What is Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Universal Stainless & Alloy Products's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Universal Stainless & Alloy Products's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Steel subindustry, Universal Stainless & Alloy Products's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Universal Stainless & Alloy Products's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Steel Industry
For the Steel industry and Basic Materials sector, Universal Stainless & Alloy Products's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Universal Stainless & Alloy Products's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -8.23 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.03% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (Universal Stainless & Alloy Products) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
600 Mayer Street, Bridgeville, PA, USA, 15017
Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Inc manufactures and markets semi-finished and finished specialty steel products, including stainless steel, nickel alloys, tool steel, and certain other alloyed steels. The company along with its subsidiaries involves melting, remelting, heat treating, hot and cold rolling, forging, machining and cold drawing of semi-finished and finished specialty steels.
Executives
| Udi Toledano |
director |
51 DUFFIELD DRIVE, S. ORANGE NJ 07079 |
| M. David Kornblatt |
director |
1214 ROUND HILL ROAD, BRYN MAWR PA 19010 |
| Judith L Bacchus |
director |
525 WILLIAM PENN PLACE, 33RD FLOOR, PITTSBURGH PA 15219 |
| Christopher L Ayers |
director |
5626 MISSION DRIVE, MISSION HILL KS 66208 |
| Dennis M Oates |
director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO |
600 MAYER STREET, BRIDGEVILLE PA 15017 |
| Steven Ditommaso |
officer: VP and CFO |
600 MAYER STREET, BRIDGEVILLE PA 15017 |
| Wendel Crosby |
officer: Vice President of Manufacturin |
600 MAYER STREET, BRIDGEVILLE PA 15017 |
| Christopher M Zimmer |
officer: Exec. V. P. & CCO |
600 MAYER STREET, BRIDGEVILLE PA 15017 |
| John Arminas |
officer: VP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary |
600 MAYER STREET, BRIDGEVILLE PA 15017 |
| Christopher Thomas Scanlon |
officer: VP Finance, Treasurer & CFO |
415 HOLIDAY DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15520 |
| Graham Mcintosh |
officer: V. P. Technology & Chief Techn |
600 MAYER STREET, BRIDGEVILLE PA 15017 |
| Alyssa H Snider |
officer: VP & CHRO |
600 MAYER STREET, BRIDGEVILLE PA 15017 |
| Paul A Mcgrath |
officer: V.P. Admin., General Counsel |
600 MAYER STREET, BRIDGEVILLE PA 15017 |
| Ross C Wilkin |
officer: V.P. Finance, CFO & Treasurer |
600 MAYER STREET, BRIDGEVILLE PA 15017 |
| Larry J Pollock |
officer: Exec. V.P. & CMO |
600 MAYER STREET, BRIDGEVILLE PA 15017 |
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