What is Saia Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Saia's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Saia's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Trucking subindustry, Saia's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Saia's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Saia's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Saia's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Saia Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -7.79 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.04% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Saia (SAIA) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
11465 Johns Creek Parkway, Suite 400, Johns Creek, GA, USA, 30097
Saia ranks among the 10 largest less-than-truckload carriers in the United States, with more than 190 facilities and a fleet of about 6,200 tractors and 20,800 trailers. As a national LTL carrier, the firm offers time-definite and expedited options for shipments ranging between 100 and 10,000 pounds. Saia ranks among the top-tier providers in terms of profitability.
Executives
| Di-ann Eisnor |
director |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Raymond R Ramu |
officer: Chief Customer Officer |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Patrick D Sugar |
officer: EVP Operations |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Holzgrefe Frederick J Iii |
officer: VP Finance, CFO and Secretary |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Douglas L Col |
officer: VP Finance, CFO |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Susan F Ward |
director |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Donna E Epps |
director |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Richard D Odell |
officer: President & CEO of Saia |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, STE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Anthony R Norwood |
officer: EVP & CHRO |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Kelly W Benton |
officer: VP & Controller |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Rohit Lal |
officer: VP Information Technology, CIO |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Kevin A Henry |
director |
13024 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, HARRIS BUILDING, SUITE 900, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Donald R James |
director |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Karla J Staver |
officer: VP Safety and Human Resources |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
| Stephanie R Maschmeier |
officer: Controller |
11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097 |
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