The GEO Group (The GEO Group) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.03% (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is The GEO Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, The GEO Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of The GEO Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Security & Protection Services subindustry, The GEO Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

The GEO Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Business Services Industry

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, The GEO Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where The GEO Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

The GEO Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-8.10

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

The GEO Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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The GEO Group (The GEO Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » The GEO Group Inc (NYSE:GEO) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GEO1:Mexico GEG:Germany GEG:Germany

Address

4955 Technology Way, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 33431

Website

https://www.geogroup.com

The GEO Group Inc specializes in detention facilities and community-reentry centers. It operates in four segments: U.S. Secure Services, which primarily encompasses U.S.-based secure services business; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, which conducts its services in the United States, represents services provided to adults for monitoring services and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants; Reentry Services conducts its services in the United States represents services provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs; and International Services.

Executives

Shayn P. March	officer: VP of Finance and Treasurer	C/O THE GEO GROUP, INC., 4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Scott Michael Kernan	director	C/O THE GEO GROUP, INC., 4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
James H. Black	officer: SVP & Pres, Secure Services	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Christopher D. Ryan	officer: Senior VP, Human Resources	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Lindsay L. Koren	director	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Matthew Albence	officer: Senior VP, Client Relations	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Andrew N Shapiro	director	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Thomas C. Bartzokis	director	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Terry P. Mayotte	director	C/O TREAN INSURANCE GROUP, INC., 150 LAKE STREET WEST, WAYZATA MN 55391
Jack Brewer	director	6200 EXCELSIOR BLVD., SUITE 104, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416
George C Zoley	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	C/O THE GEO GROUP, INC., 4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Anne N Foreman	director	C/O THE GEO GROUP, INC., 4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Richard H Glanton	director	C/O THE GEO GROUP, INC., 4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Duane Helkowski	director	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Blake Davis	officer: Pres. GEO Secure Services	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431